نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی
نویسندگان
1 گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشکده مهندسی زراعی، دانشگاه علوم کشاورزی و منابع‌طبیعی ساری، مازندران، ایران.
2 گروه اقتصادکشاورزی، دانشکده مهندسی زراعی، دانشگاه علوم کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی ساری، مازندران، ایران.
3 استادیار، گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشکده مهندسی زراعی، دانشگاه علوم کشاورزی و منابع‌طبیعی ساری، مازندران، ایران
چکیده
کلیدواژه‌ها
موضوعات
عنوان مقاله [English]
نویسندگان [English]
The main goal of the current research was to develop an optimal cultivation plan for crops in the Tajen catchment basin. For this purpose, two common deterministic mathematical programming models were used, including linear programming and goal programming and non-deterministic gray programming model,.In this regard, information on the time series of selected crops, water resources of the basin and the amount of water consumption in the agricultural sector during the years 2017-2021 from the annual reports of experts Agricultural Jihad Organization and Regional Water Company of Mazandaran Province were collected. The results indicate that the goal model is worse than the linear model in terms of profitability and better than this model in terms of the environment and it can be concluded that the goal model is the middle between the current and linear models. If the criterion for determining the optimal model is profitability and saving in the consumption of inputs that disrupt sustainability, the gray model with an average reduction of 23, 22 and 50%, respectively, in the use of water, chemical fertilizers and agricultural poisons) based on the range of savings in the consumption of the aforementioned inputs) is a more suitable model to recommend. Also, this model guarantees the possibility of earning 21,818 billion rials in gross profit only from the cultivation of barley, grain corn and rice. In addition, linear and goal models cannot provide a suitable program to farmers in the conditions of wet period/drought. Therefore, it is suggested to carry out promotional activities in order to raise awareness about the benefits of implementing the gray model on the water and soil of the region and the income of farmers.
کلیدواژه‌ها [English]
EXTENDED ABSTRACT
Today, the common language between farmers and construction programs is economic efficiency and production sustainability, of course, economic efficiency is always more dominant because agriculture is not considered a side job in today's conditions, it is definitely a complex economic enterprise. Of course, this importance should not come at the cost of harming the country's environment. In recent decades, one-sided attention to the economic well-being of farmers in cropping pattern programs has led to the neglect of harmful environmental consequences. Planning to determine the optimal pattern of cultivation, like any other type of planning, is done at three strategic, structural and operational levels. Agriculture, as one of the important economic sectors of the country, is largely affected by the quality and quantity of water resources. Therefore, there is a two-way relationship between the optimal use of water resources and the amount of production in the agricultural sector, and all planning for management and use is necessary. Sahih should be formed from this vital source. Therefore, in the present study, taking into account the conflicting economic (profit) and environmental goals (reduction of water consumption and chemical inputs), the cultivated area of selected crops in Tajen region was calculated in the form of linear, goal and gray models and with each other. has been compared.
The current study aims to calculate the optimal cultivation pattern based on the current conditions of the region with the aim of maximizing profit and minimizing the consumption of water and chemical inputs using three linear, goal and gray models and will be compared with each other. How to use data depends on the type of planning model. The linear programming model is formulated with the aim of profit maximization under consideration of resource limitations. In the aspirational planning approach, a desirable level is first selected for each aspiration. This choice can be based on upstream documents (development goals, vision document, land use plan, etc.). Then, in the objective function, the distance from the ideals is tried to be minimized. Therefore, the goal in goal programming models is to minimize undesirable deviations. The gray programming model is structurally similar to the linear programming model, with the difference that all parameters are uncertain.
The statistical population of this research is all the farmers of the agricultural sub-sector of the Tajen watershed. In the agricultural year of 1401-1400, the cultivated area of five important irrigated crops of rice, wheat, barley, rapeseed and corn in the areas of Tajen basin was reported as 33907, 2200, 386, 285 and 2550 hectares, respectively. It should be noted that the data of the basin, aggregated and the average data of 401 villages located in the study area, were prepared from the annual reports of the experts of the Jihad Agricultural Organization of this province. Also, the data related to the water resources of the basin and the amount of water consumption in the agricultural sector have been prepared by visiting the regional water joint stock company of Mazandaran province. The amount of distributed fertilizers and poisons, the number of active labor in the agricultural sector of the region and the number of active agricultural machinery have also been collected from the statistics of the Ministry of Agricultural Jihad, the statistical yearbook of the province and the reports of the Mazandaran Agricultural Jihad Organization. Data classification was done with Excel software and estimation of mathematical programming models was done with Lingo software.
In this study, using valid models of mathematical programming, different cultivation patterns were investigated to select the best structural program. Optimal linear and goal models of the current research were modeled based on the current conditions of the region. The scope of the gray planning model was designed based on unfavorable conditions (drought and the most limited state of access to all production inputs during the last 5 years) and favorable conditions (fear and the best state of access to all production inputs during the last 5 years).
In the current conditions, wheat, barley, rapeseed, grain corn, high-quality long-grain rice, and high-yielding long-grain rice are cultivated on 2,200, 386, 285, 2,550, 7,643, and 22,864 hectares, respectively, in Tejan region, and the gross profit is equal to 18,884 billion. Rial creates a region for the farmers.
By estimating the linear planning model and with the aim of achieving maximum profit, wheat and rapeseed crops were removed from the cropping pattern, and the cultivation area of high-yielding barley and long-grain rice crops increased by 644 and 31%, respectively, and reached 2871 and 29929 hectares. Also, in this model, the cultivation area of high-quality long-grain rice and grain corn products decreased by 89 and 10%, respectively, and decreased to 842 and 2286 hectares. The implementation of this model caused a 14% increase in gross profit without changing the current input stock and only through changing the cultivation mix.
Estimating the goal programming model and with the aim of achieving the economic and environmental ideals defined in the study, what happens regarding the removal, increase or decrease of the crop cultivation area is exactly similar to the linear planning model; The implementation of this model caused the gross profit to increase by 13% from the current model.
Also, the results indicate that considering the lack of stability in economic and weather conditions and estimating the gray planning model, similar to the previous two optimal models, wheat and rapeseed products were removed from the cultivation model. High-quality long-grain rice can also be removed from the cultivation mix or be cultivated on a maximum of 16,234 hectares. It is necessary to increase the cultivation area of grain corn by 138% and decrease by 53% in contrast to the cultivation area of high-yielding long-grain rice. But the area under barley cultivation can vary between 87 and 2761 hectares. In the best conditions, there will be a 16% increase in the gross profit of farmers compared to the current pattern of the region, which showed the realization of the economic ideal.
Also, the result showed that the application of each optimal model (linear, goal and gray programming) led to a reduction in the consumption of chemical fertilizers. This indicates that there is extravagance and consumption of fertilizer in Tajen region. There is excess in water consumption in Tajen region; So that the application of each of the optimal patterns can lead to the realization of preserving the reserves of Tajen water resources.
The water crisis in Iran is one of the biggest challenges that has affected all aspects of people's lives in recent years. Considering that the agricultural sector is the largest consumer of water; Water scarcity and how to adapt to it has become the most important issue in the country's agriculture. For this purpose, in the current study, the agricultural sub-section of Tajen catchment area in the east of Mazandaran was considered. So, the aim of this study is to provide an optimal cultivation pattern to adapt the agricultural sector of this region to water scarcity conditions. The results indicate that the goal programming model was worse than the linear model in terms of profitability and better than this model in terms of the environment, and it can be concluded that the goal programming model is the middle between the current and optimal linear models. In general, if the criteria for determining the optimal cultivation pattern is profitability, it can be said that the gray planning pattern is the best pattern to recommend. Also, if the selection criterion is saving water consumption, the gray planning model with a reduction of 6.671 million cubic meters in the use of this input is a more suitable model for implementation. In addition, in this model, a 22.4% reduction in the use of chemical fertilizers and a 50.2% reduction in the total consumption of agricultural poisons lead to a reduction in the penetration of pollutants into the soil, a reduction in the pollution of agricultural fields, a reduction in soil poisoning by chemical compounds, and a reduction in risks. It is caused by the residue of toxins in humans and animals, as well as a decrease in resistance to pests and plant pathogens, and in general, the stability of water and soil resources.
The results of the models indicate the possibility of growing crops with less use of chemical fertilizers. Therefore, it is recommended that policies are aimed at reducing access to this input in order to reduce damage to the environment and the spread of diseases.
Conceptualization, H.A.,S.Sh. and H.F.; methodology, S.Sh. and H.F.; software, H.F.; validation, S.Sh. and H.A.; formal analysis and investigation, H.F., H.A. and S.Sh.; resources and data curation, H.F.; writing—original draft preparation, H.F., H.A. and S.Sh.; writing—review and editing, H.F., H.A. and S.Sh.; visualization, H.F., H.A. and S.Sh.; supervision S.Sh. and H.A.
All authors have read and agreed to the published version of the manuscript.
Data available on reseanoable request from the authors.
We are grateful to the experts of agronomy management and plant conservation management of Mazandaran Province Agricultural Jihad Organization and Sari City Agricultural Jihad Management who cooperated in data collection. This article is taken from the preliminary results of a doctoral dissertation with material and intellectual rights related to Sari Agricultural Sciences and Natural Resources University, which is gratefully acknowledged.
The authors avoided data fabrication, falsification, plagiarism, and misconduct. Conflict of interest.
The author declares no conflict of interest.
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