The Effect of Climate Change on Main Areas of Rainfed Wheat Production in Iran

Document Type : Research Paper


1 Ph.D Student of Agricultural Meteorology, Department of Water Engineering, Faculty of Agriculture, Ferdowsi University of Mashhad, Iran.

2 Associate Professor, Department of Water Engineering, Faculty of Agriculture, Ferdowsi University of Mashhad, Mashhad, Iran.

3 Professor, Department of Agronomy, Faculty of Agriculture, Ferdowsi University of Mashhad, Mashhad, Iran.


Climate change and global warming has increased climatic unfavorable events that could reduce crop yields and endanger food security. 13 agro-climatic indices which are based on the outputs of CMIP5 models and RCP emission scenarios, were used to investigate the effect of climate change on areas at risk of adverse events. Occurrence probability of heat stresses will be increased during the flowering and grain-filling for early and late cultivars at the end of the century so that these stresses will become the dominant adverse events in all areas. The occurrence probability of at least one adverse event is more than 20 and 90 percent for early and late cultivars, respectively in all areas for the baseline conditions, and this probability is expected to increase by more than 40 and 94 percent for early and late cultivars, respectively under future climate scenarios. Proportional to the reduction of water stress for different emission scenarios, the probability of simultaneous occurrence of heat and water stress at the flowering stage will decrease in future as compared to the baseline. In future, areas where are at risk of at least two adverse event occurrences will increase further, as compare to those where are at risk of at least one adverse event occurrence. Toward the end of the century, more areas will be at risk of at least one and two adverse event occurrences.


Main Subjects

Ahmadi, K., Gholizadeh, H., Abedzadeh, H. R., Hossein Pour, R., Abdshah, H., Kazimian, A., and Maryam, R. (2017). Agricultural Statistics of 1394-95 (Volume I). Ministry of Agriculture, Department of Planning and Economic Center for Information and Communication Technology. (In Farsi).
Alexandrov, V., Mateescu, E., Mestre, A., Kepinska-Kasprzak, M., Stefano, V. D., and Dalezios, N. (2008). Summarizing a questionnaire on trends of agroclimatic indices and simulation model outputs in Europe. In Cost Action (Vol. 734, pp. 115–161).
Allen, R. G., Pereira, L. S., Raes, D., and Smith, M. (1998). FAO Irrigation and drainage paper No. 56. Rome: Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, 56(97), e156.
Altinsoy, H., Kurt, C., and Kurnaz, M. L. (2013). Analysis of the Effect of Climate Change on the Yield of Crops in Turkey Using a Statistical Approach. In C. G. Helmis and P. T. Nastos (Eds.), Advances in Meteorology, Climatology and Atmospheric Physics SE  - 53 (pp. 379–384). Springer Berlin Heidelberg.
Angulo, C., Rötter, R., Lock, R., Enders, A., Fronzek, S., and Ewert, F. (2013). Implication of crop model calibration strategies for assessing regional impacts of climate change in Europe. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 170(0), 32–46.
Baker, R.J. (1996). Oslo and Biggar spring wheats respond differently to controlled temperature and moisture stress. Canadian journal of plant science 76(3), 413–416.
Delavar, N., Akhavan, S., and Mehnatkesh, A. (2017). Climate Change Impact on Some Factors Affecting Rainfed Wheat Growth (Case Study: Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari Province). Journal of Water and Soil Science, 21(2), 131–149. (In Farsi).
Gourdji, S. M., Sibley, A. M., and Lobell, D. B. (2013). Global crop exposure to critical high temperatures in the reproductive period: historical trends and future projections. Environmental Research Letters, 8(2), 24041.
Hansen, J. W., and Jones, J. W. (2000). Scaling-up crop models for climate variability applications. Agricultural Systems, 65(1), 43–72.
Kruijt, B., Witte, J.-P. M., Jacobs, C. M. J., and Kroon, T. (2008). Effects of rising atmospheric CO2 on evapotranspiration and soil moisture: A practical approach for the Netherlands. Journal of Hydrology, 349(3–4), 257–267.
Lobell, D. B., and Asseng, S. (2017). Comparing estimates of climate change impacts from process-based and statistical crop models. Environmental Research Letters, 12(1), 15001.
Luo, Q., Trethowan, R., Tan, D.K.Y. (2018). Managing the risk of extreme climate events in Australian major wheat production systems. International journal of biometeorology, 62(9), 1685-1694.
Misra, A. K. (2014). Climate change and challenges of water and food security. International Journal of Sustainable Built Environment, 3(1), 153–165.
Moss, R. H., Edmonds, J. a, Hibbard, K. a, Manning, M. R., Rose, S. K., van Vuuren, D. P., … Wilbanks, T. J. (2010). The next generation of scenarios for climate change research and assessment. Nature, 463(7282), 747–756.
Olesen, J. E., Børgesen, C. D., Elsgaard, L., Palosuo, T., Rötter, R. P., Skjelvåg,  a O., … van der Fels-Klerx, H. J. (2012). Changes in time of sowing, flowering and maturity of cereals in Europe under climate change. Food Additives and Contaminants. Part A, Chemistry, Analysis, Control, Exposure and Risk Assessment, 29(10), 1527–1542.
Plaut, Z., Butow, B.J., Blumenthal, C.S., Wrigley, C.W. (2004). Transport of dry matter into developing wheat kernels and its contribution to grain yield under post-anthesis water deficit and elevated temperature. Field Crops Research, 86(2), 185–198.
Priya, S., and Shibasaki, R. (2001). National spatial crop yield simulation using GIS-based crop production model. Ecological Modelling, 136(2–3), 113–129.
Rahimi, J., Khalili, A., and Bazrafshan, J. (2014). Estimation of effective precipitation for winter wheat in different regions of Iran using an Extended Soil-Water Balance Model. Desert, 19(2), 91–98.
Rahmani, M., Jami Al-Ahmadi, M., Shahidi, A., and Hadizadeh Azghandi, M. (2016). Effects of climate change on length of growth stages and water requirement of wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) and barley (Hordeum vulgare L.) (Case study: Birjand plain). Journal of Agroecology, 7(4), 443–460. (In Farsi).
Rahmstorf, S., and Coumou, D. (2011). Increase of extreme events in a warming world. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences , 108(44), 17905–17909.
Rotter, R. P., Carter, T. R., Olesen, J. E., and Porter, J. R. (2011). Crop-climate models need an overhaul. Nature Clim. Change, 1(4), 175–177.
Saadati, Z., Delbari, M., Panahi, M., Amiri, E., Rahimian, M., and Ghodsi, M. (2016). Evaluation of the Effects of Climate Change on Wheat Growing Period and Evapotranspiration Using the CERES-Wheat Model (Case Study: Mashhad). Water and Soil Science, 26(3), 67–79. (In Farsi).
Shokouhi, M., and Sanaei nejad, S. (2014). Determination of Weather Conditions Associated With the Production of Rainfed Barley Crop (Case Study: East Azerbaijan). Journal of Agroecology, 6(3), 634–644. (In Farsi).
Shokouhi, M., Sanaei Nejad, S., and Bannayan Aval, M. (2018). Evaluation of Simulations of Precipitation and Temperature from CMIP5 Climate Models in Regional Climate Change Studies (Case Study: Major Rainfed Wheat-Production Areas in Iran). Journal of Water and Soil, 32(5), 1013-1027. (In Farsi).
Slafer, G.A., Rawson, H.M. (1994). Sensitivity of wheat phasic development to major environmental factors: a re-examination of some assumptions made by physiologists and modellers. Functional Plant Biology, 21(4), 393–426.
Taylor, K. E., Stouffer, R. J., and Meehl, G. a. (2012). An Overview of CMIP5 and the Experiment Design. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 93(4), 485–498.
Trnka, M., Hlavinka, P., and Semenov, M. A. (2015). Adaptation options for wheat in Europe will be limited by increased adverse weather events under climate change. Journal of the Royal Society Interface, 12(112), 20150721.
Trnka, M., Rötter, R. P., Ruiz-Ramos, M., Kersebaum, K. C., Olesen, J. E., Žalud, Z., and Semenov, M. a. (2014). Adverse weather conditions for European wheat production will become more frequent with climate change. Nature Climate Change, 4(7), 637–643.
Valipour, M. (2014). Use of average data of 181 synoptic stations for estimation of reference crop evapotranspiration by temperature-based methods. Water Resources Management, 28(12), 4237–4255.
Wang, J., Huang, J., and Yan, T. (2013). Impacts of Climate Change on Water and Agricultural Production in Ten Large River Basins in China. Journal of Integrative Agriculture, 12(7), 1267–1278
Yarmohammadi, S., Zakerinia, M., Ghorbani, K., and Soltani, A. (2018). Investigation of the effect of climate change on evapotranspiration and wheat water requirement in Bojnord region. Water Engineering, 10(35), 97–110. (In Farsi).