Simulation of Rainfall-Runoff in Tajan Basin under Different Scenarios of Climate Change

Articles in Press

Document Type : Research Paper

Authors

1 Water Eng. Department, Faculty of Agricultural Engineering, Sari Agricultural Sciences and Natural Resources University, Sari, Iran.

2 Faculty Member, Water Engineering Department, Agricultural Eng. College, Sari Agricultural Sciences and Natural Resources University, Sari, Iran.

3 Mazandaran Regional Water Company Studies Office, Sari, Iran.

Abstract

Determining and predicting runoff is a crucial step in the proper use of water resources. This research aims to calibrate and validate the HEC-HMS model and simulate rainfall-runoff for continuous data series in the Tajan basin based on climate change Scenarios. In this research, the data recorded during the years 2002-2009 were used for the calibration stage and the data recorded during the years 2010-2016 were used for the verification stage. The results of model calibration showed that the correlation coefficient between observed and simulated discharge values was equal to 0.81 and the Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient was equal to 0.68, which indicates a good match between the mentioned data. Also, in the verification stage, the correlation index and Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient were equal to 0.80 and 0.63, respectively, confirming that the model shows a good estimate for the observations. In the next step, data values in the daily time scale for the period of 2020-2049 were loaded in the model and basin runoff was simulated for this period. The results showed that the amount of discharge in the future period compared to the base period would decrease strongly under both RCP 8.5 and RCP 2.6 climate change scenarios, and only in the RCP 8.5 scenario, the discharge will increase a little compared to the base period in August, September, October and November. The simulation results showed that the amount of discharge in summer and autumn under the RCP 8.5 scenario will increase more than in the RCP 2.6 scenario.

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Iranian Journal of Soil and Water Research

Articles in Press, Accepted Manuscript
Available Online from 17 November 2024

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