Assessment of suitable areas for cultivation of wheat, corn, sugar beet, and tomato in different climates of Iran considering the climate change effects using AquaCrop model

Document Type : Research Paper

Authors

1 Water Science and Engineering, Faculty of Agriculture, Ferdowsi University of Mashhad, Mashhad, Iran

2 Water Engineering and Science Department of Ferdowsi University of Mashhad, Mashhad, Iran.

3 Department of Water Science and Engineering, Faculty of Agriculture, Ferdowsi University of Mashhad, Mashhad, Iran

4 Department Water Engineering, College Agriculture, Ferdowsi University (FUM), Mashhad, Iran

Abstract

Choosing suitable crops for cultivation in each region, considering the resilience of the agronomic system and water status is a vital aspect in formulating the country's agronomic strategy and requires meticulous planning. The present study was conducted to provide a general framework for finding the best area for cultivating tomato, wheat, fodder corn and sugar beet crops in 12 selected lacations of Iran by applying distribution and climate change from 1980 to 2020. In this study the Aqua Crop model was used to perform plant simulations. After comparing the dry product values reported in each of the 12 regions studied by the Agricultural Jihad Organization and the valued modeled by AquaCrop, the validation error for the mentioned regions was estimated to be 4.8, 3.8, 6.6 and 4.6 percent for sugar beets, tomatoes, wheat, and fodder corn, respectively. The model was able to consistently demonstrate an average simulation error below 10 percent. Prediction of future crop production was derived from climate data sourced from the MRI-ESM 0-2 weather modeling software, using SIMIP6 and SIMHIDE models. By analyzing the modeling and historical data for the proposed crops, the highest and lowest amounts of wheat, sugar beet, fodder corn and tomato were determined in Isfahan and Zahedan, Urmia and Bojnord, Isfahan and Mashhad, and Zanjan and Zahedah, respectively. Three indicators of mass amount, crop price and irrigation depth were used as Comparable indices among the crops in different cities for the two planned and potential modes.  The priority of crop cultivation in each city, to decide which crop is the best and prioritize them, was determined using mass, product price, and irrigation water depth. The study highlights the best and worst locations for cultivating tomatoes, fodder corn, wheat, and sugar beets as Kermanshah and Zahedan, Isfahan and Mashhad, Tehran and Zahedan, and Kermanshah and Mashhad, respectively.

Keywords

Main Subjects

EXTENDED ABSTRACT

Introduction:

The pivotal task of selecting crops for a country's agricultural strategy, considering resilience and water conditions, demands meticulous planning. This study delves into the assessment of spatial potential for cultivating tomatoes, wheat, forage corn, and sugar beet across 12 diverse points in Iran. These locations include Mashhad, Kermanshah, Qazvin, Shiraz, Semnan, Zanjan, Zahedan, Tehran, Bandar Abbas, Bojnourd, Isfahan, and Urmia. The geographical spread encompasses a variety of climate conditions, and the analysis spans the years 1980 to 2020. This comprehensive approach aims to provide a nuanced understanding of the agricultural landscape in these key regions, guiding strategic decisions for sustainable crop cultivation.

Materials and Methods:

By employing the Hargreaves–Samani equation, Rosetta pedotransfer model, and NetWat, our study intricately calculates daily reference evapotranspiration, soil characteristics, and irrigation water planning. The comprehensive approach involves utilizing the AquaCrop model to formulate dry product quantities, which are then rigorously validated against data from the Ministry of Agriculture Jihad. The comparison of measured values with AquaCrop-modeled dry yields results in validation error rates of 4.8 percent for sugar beet, 3.8 percent for tomatoes, 6.6 percent for wheat, and 4.6 percent for corn. On average, the model showcases an impressive simulation accuracy of 90 percent, with an overall error rate remaining below 10 percent. To forecast future crop yields, we leverage climate data from the meteorological model MRI-ESM 0-2 with CMIP6 outputs, obtained through the CMhyd software.

Results and Discussion:

Analyzing both modeling and historical data unveils considerable variations in production levels for wheat, sugar beet, forage corn, and tomatoes across different cities. The prioritization, based on factors like crop mass, irrigation water depth, and monetary value, provides valuable insights into identifying the most and least suitable locations for each crop. This process aids in efficient resource management and informed decision-making, offering crucial guidance for agricultural and environmental experts. By evaluating the highest and lowest production levels in cities such as Isfahan, Zahedan, Urumieh, Bojnord, Mashhad, and Zanjan, the study explores a comprehensive perspective on crop cultivation dynamics. The utilization of three indices—crop mass, irrigation water depth, and monetary value—enhances the accuracy of comparisons, ensuring a nuanced understanding of the planning required for cultivating various crops in different cities. The prioritization achieved in this research not only optimizes resource management but also underscores the importance of sustainable practices for the preservation of vital resources.

Conclusions:

The research, by emphasizing the importance of comprehensive studies, not only contributes to national food security but also plays a pivotal role in ecosystem preservation. The prioritization process, a key outcome of this study, significantly enhances efficient resource management, providing substantial support for the principles of sustainable agriculture. This research serves as a guiding beacon for agricultural and environmental experts, empowering them with precise planning insights for cultivating crops optimally. The identified gap in existing research endeavors, considering multifaceted aspects, accentuates the urgency of undertaking such investigations. The holistic approach proposed in this study is not just essential but imperative for safeguarding national food security and ensuring the preservation of ecosystems. By addressing these critical aspects, the research paves the way for a sustainable future, where prudent decision-making aligns with the long-term well-being of both agriculture and the environment

Author Contributions

For research articles with several authors, a short paragraph specifying their individual contributions must be provided. The following statements should be used “Conceptualization, M.Ss., H.A., K.D. and SM.N.; methodology, M.Ss., H.A., K.D. and SM.N.; software, M.Ss. and SM.N.; validation, M.Ss. and SM.N.; formal analysis, M.Ss., H.A., K.D. and SM.N.; investigation, M.Ss. and SM.N.; resources, H.A. and K.D; data curation, M.Ss. and SM.N.; writing—original draft preparation, M.Ss. and SM.N.; writing—review and editing, M.Ss., H.A., K.D. and SM.N.; visualization, M.Ss. and SM.N.; supervision, H.A., K.D. and SM.N.; funding acquisition, H.A. and K.D. All authors have read and agreed to the published version of the manuscript

Data Availability Statement

Data is available on reasonable request from the authors.

Acknowledgements

The authors would like to thank all participants of the present study.

Ethical considerations

The authors avoided data fabrication, falsification, plagiarism, and misconduct.

Conflict of interest

The author declares no conflict of interest.

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Iranian Journal of Soil and Water Research
Volume 55, Issue 8
October 2024
Pages 1433-1450

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