Evaluating the consequences of climate change on the trend of extreme events and its impact on the phenology of almond trees, a case study: East Azarbaijan province

Articles in Press

Document Type : Research Paper

Authors

Department of Physical Geography, Faculty of Social Sciences, University of Mohaghegh Ardabili, Ardabil, Iran.

Abstract

Extreme weather events are one of the most important challenges for agricultural producers, and these events are currently increasing. Projection the effects of extreme events on garden crops is one of the most important discussions in food security and agricultural economics. The purpose of this research is to investigate the consequences of climate change on the trend of extreme events and its effect on the phenology of almond trees in East Azerbaijan province. In order to investigate and project Precipitation and minimum and maximum temperature and determine the threshold index that had the greatest impact on almond tree phenology from the Cimate Model Intercomparion Project – Phase 6 (CMIP 6) in the upcoming period (2021 to 2100) was used in Tabriz, Ahar, Jolfa, Maragheh and Midane stations. The results of the investigation of temperature and rainfall indicators for the future periods indicated that the average annual temperature will increase from 0.91 to 4.5 degrees Celsius until the year 2100 and the Precipitation output until the year 2100 indicates that the Precipitation in SSP5-8.5 scenario will decrease and in two scenarios SSP1-2.6 and SSP2-4.5 will increase a bit. These results showed that the length of the almond tree growth season increased from 176 days in the base observed period to 156 days in the SSP1-2.6 scenario, 150 days in the SSP2-4.5 scenario, and 146 days in the SSP5-8.5 scenario.

Keywords

Iranian Journal of Soil and Water Research

Articles in Press, Accepted Manuscript
Available Online from 29 October 2024

Files

Share

How to cite

Statistics