Evaluation of the WRF and IFS numerical weather prediction models in estimation of precipitation

Articles in Press

Document Type : Research Paper

Authors

1 Water Engineering Dept./ Imam Khomeini International University, Qazvin, Iran

2 Assistant Professor in Water Engineering Department/ Imam Khomeini International University

3 Water Resources Research (WRR) Department, Ministry of Energy, Water Research Institute (WRI), Tehran, Iran

Abstract

In recent years, numerous numerical models have been developed for the simulation of atmospheric variables such as precipitation. This study aimed to assess the efficacy of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model and the Integrated Forecast System (IFS) numerical system in simulating precipitation over the Poldokhtar basin. It should be noted that data from 7 synoptic stations that are located in and around the Poldokhtar basin were utilized in this research. The performance of these two models across 6, 12, and 24-hour time steps was evaluated using statistical and tabular metrics. Findings revealed that the WRF model exhibited a stronger correlation with observed precipitation values in the 6-hour time step, whereas the IFS system demonstrated a higher correlation with observational data in longer time steps. Furthermore, both models displayed acceptable performance in discriminating between rainy and non-rainy periods across all 3-time steps, as indicated by the Probability of Detection (POD) and False Alarm Rate (FAR) indices. Examination of spatial changes in simulated precipitation compared to observed precipitation within 6 and 12-hour time steps indicated superior performance by the WRF model. Additionally, in the 24-hour time step, results from the IFS numerical system closely resembled those obtained from the WRF model. So, the model's daily predictions can be utilized with higher confidence levels. It is imperative to note that the implementation of bias correction techniques is essential to mitigate output errors in numerical weather forecasting models.

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Main Subjects

Iranian Journal of Soil and Water Research

Articles in Press, Accepted Manuscript
Available Online from 18 September 2024

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