Assessment of Climate Change Impact on Spring-Sown Sugar Beet (Beta vulgaris L.) Net Irrigation Water Requirement and Potential Yield in Karaj, Iran (Climate Classification: BSk)

Document Type : Research Paper

Authors

Department of Irrigation and Reclamation Engineering, Faculty of Agriculture, University of Tehran, Karaj, Iran.

Abstract

Introduction:
Climate change is an undeniable phenomenon, which affects virtually every aspect of life on Earth. The agricultural sector is heavily connected to the environment and thus, gets affect by climate change the most. Climate change affects agriculture by affecting temperature and rainfall. The elevated air temperature increases the potential evapotranspiration. Variation in precipitation is generally unfavorable. Increase in precipitation causes waterlogging and subsequently erosion in soil, while decreased precipitation causes water stress in crops. It is necessary to assess the climate change impact on agriculture in order to change policies accordingly. This paper sought to assess the impact of climate change on sugar beet net irrigation water requirement and potential yield.
Materials and methods:
 In this research, the climatic information of the meteorological station located in Mohammadshahr, Karaj for the period 1970-2014 and the crop parameter of the sugar beet research farm located in Mehrshahr, Karaj were used. Future climatic data from six global climate models, namely ACCESS-ESM1-5, CanESM5, EC-EARTH3, IPSL-CM6A-LR, MRI-ESM2-0 and NorESM2-LM, under three optimistic, intermediate and pessimistic scenarios (SSP126, SSP245 and SSP585) for the period 2015-2100 were downscaled for Karaj using empirical quantile mapping method. Taylor diagram was used to evaluate the downscaling results. Temperature and precipitation data as well as reference evapotranspiration, which was calculated by Hargreaves-Samani method, were given to AquaCrop model. The effective rainfall calculation approach was set to USDA-SCS method in AquaCrop model. The trend and fluctuations of the climatic and crop variables were examined using the Mann-Kendall and Pettitt tests, respectively.
Results:
The results indicate that the sugar beet sowing and harvest dates advance by 39 and 71 days, respectively, which means a decrease of 29 days in the growing season length (from 171 to 142 days). The reference evapotranspiration under SSP585 will increase by 14.8% (6.5% under SSP126) at the end of the 21st century in Karaj. The water requirement can increase up to 7.8% under SSP585 (3.7% under SSP126). The amount of irrigation water requirement in the future period will increase up to 10.5% under SSP585 (5.8% under SSP126). The biomass and yield variations at the 21st century ending period will be 11.8% and 19.2% increase under SSP585 (4.2% and 5.9% increase under SSP126), respectively. All the climatic and crop variables showed strongly significant trend in the study period (1995-2100) under the pessimistic scenario, while the fluctuations of the variables were not as significant as their corresponding trends under the same scenario.
Conclusion:
According to the results of this paper, the increasing temperature caused by the elevating atmospheric CO2 concentration, under the pessimistic scenario, increases the sugar beet net irrigation water requirement by increasing the crop evapotranspiration. The decreasing precipitation also contributes to the obtained result. The potential yield showed a contradicting result, i.e., the elevated CO2 under the pessimistic scenario favors the yield production due to the fact that more CO2 contributes to more efficient photosynthesis. The results can be used in climate change adaptation policies regarding water allocation and optimal planting date determination for sugar beet cultivation in Karaj.

Keywords


Allen, R. G., Pereira, L. S., Raes, D. & Smith, M. (1998). Crop evapotranspiration-Guidelines for computing crop water requirements-FAO Irrigation and drainage paper 56.
Ahmadaali, K., Rahimi, H. & Etemad, V. (2021). Effect of Soil Texture and Different Levels of Irrigation Amount on Water Requirement and Crop Coefficient of Melia azedarach L. in Karaj Area. Iranian Journal of Soil and Water Research, 51, 3195-3205. (In Persian)
Araji, H. A., Wayayok, A., Bavani, A. M., Amiri, E., Abdullah, A. F., Daneshian, J. & Teh, C. (2018). Impacts of climate change on soybean production under different treatments of field experiments considering the uncertainty of general circulation models. Agricultural Water Management, 205, 63-71.
Araji, H. A., Wayayok, A., Khayamim, S., Teh, C. S., Abdullah, A. F., Amiri, E. & Bavani, A. M. (2019). Calibration of the AquaCrop model to simulate sugar beet production and water productivity under different treatments. Applied Engineering in Agriculture, 35, 211-219.
Arefinia, A., Ahmadaali, K. & Nasiri Maryan, M. (2020). Estimating the Winter Wheat Water Requirement under Climate Change Scenarios in Gorgan Plain. Iranian Journal of Soil and Water Research, 51, 1857-1868. (In Persian)
Bird, D. N., Benabdallah, S., Gouda, N., Hummel, F., Koeberl, J., La Jeunesse, I., Meyer, S., Prettenthaler, F., Soddu, A. & Woess-Gallasch, S. (2016). Modelling climate change impacts and adaptation strategies for agriculture in Sardinia and Tunisia using AquaCrop and value-at-risk. Sci Total Environ, 543, 1019-27.
Dellal, I. & Unuvar, F. (2019). Effect of climate change on food supply of Turkey. J Environ Prot Ecol, 20, 692-700.
Ebrahimipak, N., Egdarnejad, A., Tafteh, A. & Ansari, M. A. (2022). The Effect of Irrigation Water Management and Fertilizer Amount on AquaCrop Accuracy and Efficiency for Tomato Yield and Water Use Efficiency Simulation. Irrigation and Water Engineering, 12, 120-135. (In Persian)
Eyring, V., Bony, S., Meehl, G. A., Senior, C. A., Stevens, B., Stouffer, R. J. & Taylor, K. E. (2016). Overview of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) experimental design and organization. Geoscientific Model Development, 9, 1937-1958.
Fazeli Khiavi, A., Salahi, B. & Goodarzi, M. (2020). Assessment effects of climate change on changes in potential evapotranspiration in the Moghan Plain by RCPs. Watershed Engineering and Management, 12, 977-993. (In Persian)
Fricko, O., Havlik, P., Rogelj, J., Klimont, Z., Gusti, M., Johnson, N., Kolp, P., Strubegger, M., Valin, H. & Amann, M. 2017. The marker quantification of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 2: A middle-of-the-road scenario for the 21st century. Global Environmental Change, 42, 251-267.
Gebru, B. M., Adane, G. B., Park, E., Khamzina, A. & Lee, W.-K. (2022). Landscape pattern and climate dynamics effects on ecohydrology and implications for runoff management: Case of a dry Afromontane Forest in northern Ethiopia. Geocarto International, 1-23.
Ghahreman, R. & Rahimzadegan, M. (2022). Calculating net radiation of freshwater reservoir to estimate spatial distribution of evaporation using satellite images. Journal of Hydrology, 605, 127392.
Gholami, H., Moradi, Y., Lotfirad, M., Gandomi, M. A., Bazgir, N. & Shokrian Hajibehzad, M. (2022). Detection of abrupt shift and non-parametric analyses of trends in runoff time series in the Dez river basin. Water Supply, 22, 1216-1230.
Hargreaves, G. H. & Samani, Z. A. (1985). Reference crop evapotranspiration from temperature. Applied engineering in agriculture, 1, 96-99.
Hoseini Tabesh, S. & Aghashariatmadari, Z. (2020). The Effect of Climate Change on Rice Irrigation Requirement under RCP Scenarios (Case Study: Anzali). Iranian Journal of Soil and Water Research, 51, 2607-2621. (In Persian)
Joorabloo, S., Azhdary, K., Ganji, Z. & Delghandi, M. (2019). Climate Change Impact on Reference Evapotranspiration and Precipitation Deficit in Semnan Region. Irrigation Sciences and Engineering (JISE) (Scientific Journal Of Agriculture), 41. (In Persian)
Karimi, S., Egdernezhad, A. & Nakhjavanimoghaddam, M. M. (2021). Assessing Aquacrop Model Accuracy for Simulation of Corn Yield and Water Use Efficiency in Different Plant Densities and Water Amount. Environment and Water Engineering, 7, 59-72. (In Persian)
Kriegler, E., Bauer, N., Popp, A., Humpenöder, F., Leimbach, M., Strefler, J., Baumstark, L., Bodirsky, B. L., Hilaire, J. & Klein, D. (2017). Fossil-fueled development (SSP5): an energy and resource intensive scenario for the 21st century. Global environmental change, 42, 297-315.
Lin, P., He, Z., Du, J., Chen, L., Zhu, X. & Li, J. (2018). Impacts of climate change on reference evapotranspiration in the Qilian Mountains of China: Historical trends and projected changes. International Journal of Climatology, 38, 2980-2993.
Ma, L., Ahuja, L., Islam, A., Trout, T., Saseendran, S. & Malone, R. (2017). Modeling yield and biomass responses of maize cultivars to climate change under full and deficit irrigation. Agricultural Water Management, 180, 88-98.
Nakhjavani Moghaddam, M. M., Ghahreman, B. & Zarei, G. (2017). Wheat Water Productivity Analysis under Different Irrigation Management Practices in Some Regions of Iran. Journal of Water Research in Agriculture, 31, 43-57. (In Persian)
O’neill, B. C., Kriegler, E., Ebi, K. L., Kemp-Benedict, E., Riahi, K., Rothman, D. S., Van Ruijven, B. J., Van Vuuren, D. P., Birkmann, J. & Kok, K. (2017). The roads ahead: Narratives for shared socioeconomic pathways describing world futures in the 21st century. Global environmental change, 42, 169-180.
Oruc, S. (2022). Performance of bias corrected monthly CMIP6 climate projections with different reference period data in Turkey. Acta Geophysica, 70, 777-789.
Petkeviciene, B. (2009). The effects of climate factors on sugar beet early sowing timing. Agronomy Research, 7, 436-443.
Pettitt, A. N. (1979). A non‐parametric approach to the change‐point problem. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series C (Applied Statistics), 28, 126-135.
Rahimikhoob, H., Sohrabi, T., & Delshad, M. (2020). Assessment of reference evapotranspiration estimation methods in controlled greenhouse conditions. Irrigation Science, 38, 389-400.
Sánchez-Sastre, L. F., Alte Da Veiga, N. M., Ruiz-Potosme, N. M., Hernández-Navarro, S., Marcos-Robles, J. L., Martín-Gil, J. & Martín-Ramos, P. (2020). Sugar beet agronomic performance evolution in NW Spain in future scenarios of climate change. Agronomy, 10, 91.
Sen, P. K. (1968). Estimates of the regression coefficient based on Kendall's tau. Journal of the American statistical association, 63, 1379-1389.
Shahid, S. (2010). Impact of climate change on irrigation water demand of dry season Boro rice in northwest Bangladesh. Climatic Change, 105, 433-453.
Smith, J. B., Hulme, M., Jaagus, J., Keevallik, S., Mekonnen, A. & Hailemariam, K. (1998). Climate change scenarios. UNEP Handbook on Methods for Climate Change Impact Assessment and Adaptation Studies, 2, 3-1.
Sun, J., Yan, H., Bao, Z. & Wang, G. (2022). Investigating Impacts of Climate Change on Runoff from the Qinhuai River by Using the SWAT Model and CMIP6 Scenarios. Water, 14, 1778.
Van Vuuren, D. P., Stehfest, E., Gernaat, D. E., Doelman, J. C., Van Den Berg, M., Harmsen, M., De Boer, H. S., Bouwman, L. F., Daioglou, V. & Edelenbosch, O. Y. (2017). Energy, land-use and greenhouse gas emissions trajectories under a green growth paradigm. Global Environmental Change, 42, 237-250.
Yue, S., Pilon, P., Phinney, B. & Cavadias, G. (2002). The influence of autocorrelation on the ability to detect trend in hydrological series. Hydrological processes, 16, 1807-1829.
Yue, Y., Yan, D., Yue, Q., Ji, G. & Wang, Z. (2021). Future changes in precipitation and temperature over the Yangtze River Basin in China based on CMIP6 GCMs. Atmospheric Research, 264, 105828.