Investigating the effect of agricultural product price forecasting on groundwater level using systems dynamics, in order to simultaneously maintain the welfare of farmers and groundwater resources

Document Type : Research Paper

Authors

1 associate professor, water eng. group, Imam Khomeini International University، Qazvin

2 Ph.D. student in water science and engineering, agriculture and natural science, ikiu, qazvin

10.22059/ijswr.2022.345131.669305

Abstract

In this study, with the aim of preserving groundwater resources and providing livelihood to farmers, the groundwater level in the irrigation network of Qazvin plain is simulated under six scenarios: 1) Continuation of current harvest without increasing cultivated area 2) Increasing cultivated area by reducing fallow 3) Simultaneous optimization of Cultivation pattern and distribution water with price forecasting 4) Simultaneous optimization of water Cultivation pattern and distribution water with price forecasting and reduction of functional vacuum 5) Simultaneous optimization of Cultivation pattern and distribution water with price forecasting and increasing efficiency Irrigation 6) Simultaneous optimization of Cultivation pattern and distribution water with price forecasting, increasing irrigation efficiency and reducing the yield gap using the system dynamics during the years 2002-2037. A genetic algorithm was used to optimize. It should be noted that the sensitivity analysis and calibration of the model according to the groundwater level observational data for the period 2002 to 2016 and the impact of different scenarios on the groundwater level until 2037 has been studied. The results showed that the lowest drop in groundwater level occurs under scenario 6, and based on this scenario, the groundwater level decreases by an average of 1.2 meters per year, which is compared to scenarios one, two, three, four, and five. 42.21, 49.01, 22.68, 10.20, and 8.05 percent less, respectively. Although with simultaneous optimization of water cultivation and distribution pattern with price forecasting, an increase of irrigation efficiency and reduction of performance vacuum, groundwater level drop is less than 5 other scenarios, this amount of drop is still high, and more serious measures are needed in this field. To be adopted.

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