Adaptation to Climate Change Conditions in Maroon Basin

Document Type : Research Paper


1 Department of Civil Engineering, Science and Research Branch, Islamic Azad University

2 Department of Civil, Water and Environmental Engineering, Technical and Engineering College, Shahid Beheshti University, Tehran, Iran.



The purpose of this research is to investigate the adaptation to existing water resources and downstream needs in climate change conditions in Maroon Basin, which was done using a combination of SWAT and MODSIM models. In the first step, simulation of climate change effects on the inflow to the Maroon Dam was performed using the SWAT model and under four climatic scenarios, RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6, and RCP8.5 over the following three twenty-year periods: near (2021-2040), middle (2041-2060), and far (2061-2080). Monthly flow data measured at the Idanak and Tang-e-Takab stations were used to calibrate and validate the model. The Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) index of Idanak and Tang-e-Takab stations in Behbahan was 0.69 and 0.67 in the calibration step and 0.65 and 0.59 in the validation step. Then these data were entered into the SWAT model to simulate the inflow to the dam for the following three periods. The results of forecasting the inflow to the dam by the SWAT model showed that the increase in temperature would have a more significant effect and efficiency in reducing the flow rate efficiency, despite the increase in precipitation in the area. Then, the Maroon Dam inflow results in the current and future periods were used as essential inputs of the MODSIM model. Water allocation to each requirement in all periods was done by collecting other necessary information and calculating the reliability performance index. This study showed that climate change had affected water allocation to available requirements. Compared to the current situation, it will reduce the average allocation by 2 to 6.25 percent. In this research, an attempt has been made to maintain the cultivated area and reliability index in the current situation by changing the cultivation pattern.


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