Effectiveness of Groundwater Resources Balancing Strategies for Landslide Control (Case Study: Varamin Study Area)

Document Type : Research Paper

Authors

1 Ph.D. Student of Water Resources, Department of Water Engineering and Sciences, Science and Research Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran.

2 Assistant Professor, Department of Water Engineering and Sciences, Science and Research Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran.

Abstract

The main purpose of this study is to develop a multi-criteria decision model based on stakeholders in the study area of ​​Varamin plain with the approach of aquifer subsidence control. One of the important tools for developing a decision model for land subsidence control is to use numerical models and evaluate different scenarios in these models. Due to the relationship and sensitivity of groundwater abstraction with subsidence, use of MODFLOW model to quantitatively simulate the aquifer and then use of SUB software package to simulate the amount of subsidence can determine this relationship well. Quantitative analysis and simulation of the subsidence model showed that the condition of the aquifer is critical and the rate of aquifer drop in a period of 5 years is more than 6 meters and subsequently the subsidence in the central parts of the aquifer will reach 37 cm. Accordingly, the effectiveness of these strategies was studied by considering 8 scenario strategies that are a combination of reducing the withdrawal of groundwater resources and artificial feeding of the aquifer. The results of weighting the criteria showed that the environmental criterion, which is related to the land subsidence adjustment index, has the highest weight with value of 0.27 and was introduced as the most important criterion in decision making. After evaluating the results and priorities of the solutions by COPRAS method, it was found that the A8 scenario is introduced as the first priority of aquifer treatment. The results also showed that by applying this scenario, the amount of subsidence will be reduced and the maximum amount of subsidence will be 23.5 cm in the central part of the aquifer. Finally, the quantitative status of the aquifer also improved by 76% compared to the forecast period (2024).

Keywords


Al Heib, M., Duval, C., Theoleyre, F., Watelet, J.-M., Gombert, P., 2015. Analysis of the historical collapse of an abandoned underground chalk mine in 1961 in Clamart (Paris, France). Bull. Eng. Geol. Environ. 74 (3), 1001–1018.
Nieuwenhuis, H., Schokking, F., 1997. Land subsidence in drained peat areas of the Province of Friesland, The Netherlands. Q. J. Eng. Geol. Hydrogeol. 30 (1), 37–48.
Strzalkowski, P., Tomiczek, K., 2015. Analytical and numerical method assessing the risk of sinkholes formation in mining areas. Int. J. Min. Sci. Technol. 25 (1), 85–89.
Choi, J.-K., Kim, K.-D., Lee, S., Won, J.-S., 2010. Application of a fuzzy operator to susceptibility estimations of coal mine subsidence in Taebaek City, Korea. Environ. Earth Sci. 59 (5), 1009–1022.
Deverel, S.J., Rojstaczer, S., 1996. Subsidence of agricultural lands in the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta, California: role of aqueous and gaseous carbon fluxes. Water Resource. Res. 32 (8), 2359–2367.
Ghenai, C., Albawab, M., & Bettayeb, M. (2020). Sustainability indicators for renewable energy systems using multi-criteria decision-making model and extended SWARA/ARAS hybrid method. Renewable Energy, 146, 580-597.
Kaklauskas, A., Zavadskas, E., & Ditkevicius, R. (2006). An intelligent tutoring system for construction and real estate management master degree studies. Cooperative Design, Visualization, and Engineering, 12, 174–181.
Keršuliene, V., Zavadskas, E. K., & Turskis, Z. (2010). Selection of rational dispute resolution method by applying new step‐wise weight assessment ratio analysis (SWARA). Journal of business economics and management, 11(2), 243-258.
Khalifi, P., Nadiri, A. A., Novinpour, E. A., & Gharekhani, M. (2019). Estimation of Subsidence Potential Index Using the PCSM Method and Fuzzy Model in Ardabil Plain Aquifer. Iran-Watershed Management Science & Engineering, 13(45), 44-53.
Ministry of Energy. (2017). Water resources balance update studies in the study area of the Namak Lake basin. Department of basic studies of water resources management company, balance report no. 4134, 69 pp.
Moghaddam, H.K., Moghaddam, H.K., Kivi, Z.R., Bahreinimotlagh, M. and Alizadeh, M.J., 2019. Developing comparative mathematic models, BN and ANN for forecasting of groundwater levels. Groundwater for Sustainable Development, 9, 100-113.
Naderi, K., Nadiri, A. A., Asghari Moghaddam, A., & Kord, M. (2018). A new approach to determine probable land subsidence areas (Case study: The Salmas plain aquifer). Iranian Journal of ecohydrology, 5(1), 85-97.
Nadiri, A. A., Taheri, Z., Barzegari, Gh., & Dideban, Kh. (2018). A framework to estimation of aquifer subsidence potential using genetic algorithm. Iran-Water Resources Research, 14(2), 174-185.
Noorbeh, P., Roozbahani, A. and Moghaddam, H.K. (2020). Annual and Monthly Dam Inflow Prediction Using Bayesian Networks. Water Resources Management, pp.1-19.
Sadeghfam, S., Khatibi, R., Dadashi, S., & Nadiri, A. A. (2020). Transforming subsidence vulnerability indexing based on ALPRIFT into risk indexing using a new fuzzy-catastrophe scheme. Environmental Impact Assessment Review, 82, 106-122.
Tafreshi, G.M., Nakhaei, M. and Lak, R., 2019. Land subsidence risk assessment using GIS fuzzy logic spatial modeling in Varamin aquifer, Iran. Geo Journal, 11, 1-21.
Zavadskas, E. K., & Kaklauskas, A. (1996). Determination of an efficient contractor by using the new method of multicriteria assessment. In International Symposium for The Organization and Management of Construction. Shaping Theory and Practice 2, 94-104.‏
Zavadskas, E. K., Kaklauskas, A., & Vilutiene, T. (2009). Multicriteria evaluation of apartment blocks maintenance contractors: Lithuanian case study. International Journal of Strategic Property Management, 13(4), 319-338.
Zavadskas, E. K., Stević, Ž., Tanackov, I., & Prentkovskis, O. (2018). A novel multicriteria approach–rough step-wise weight assessment ratio analysis method (R-SWARA) and its application in logistics. Studies in Informatics and Control, 27(1), 97-106.‏