Developing a Regional Model for Estimating Flood Mortality Regarding the Evacuation Time (Case Study: Kan Watershed)

Document Type : Research Paper

Authors

1 PhD. Student, Water Engineering Department, Imam Khomeini International University

2 Professor, Water Engineering Department, Imam Khomeini International University, Qazvin, Iran

Abstract

Floods are one of the most important natural hazards causing many serious destruction and fatalities, especially in Iran. Despite recognizing the high number of fatalities due to floods, especially in recent years, there is not an acceptable/reliable model for mortality estimation.  The few presented models, that are intrinsicly valuable, are not enough for achieving the goals. The regional model presented in this paper employs hydraulic properties of floods and geometric characteristics of rivers for mortality estimation while considering the effect of available evacuation time in flood-prone areas. Based on the presented algorithm, the product of two hydraulic parameters: depth and flow velocity, presented in a raster format, are required for mortality simulation.  An exponential function was developed based on the relationship between the depth, velocity, and the number of observed fatalities in the corresponding floods. The model, employing the length and slope of the main channel as the two geomorphologic parameters of the river directly related to the flow hydraulics, is capable of considering the available time for the people at risk to evacuate the region. Finally, the developed model’s efficacy and accuracy were confirmed by comparing the results of the model with historical records and with that of the global/regional models.

Keywords

Main Subjects


Abt, SR. Wittler, RJ. Taylor, A. and Love, DJ. (1989). Human stability in a high flood hazard zone. Water Resour Bull., 25(4):881–890.
Asselman, N.E.M. and Jonkman, S.N. (2003). Consequences of floods: the development of a method to estimate the loss of life. Delft cluster publication: DC1-233-7, 27p.
Beitollahi, A. (2019). Lessons from the recent flood of the country, Shiraz flooding, Road, Building and Urban Development Research Center, 51 pp.
Boyd, E. (2005). Toward an empirical measure of disaster vulnerability: storm surges, New Orleans, and Hurricane Betsy. In: 4th UCLA conference on public health and disasters, 1–4 May, Los Angeles.
Brazdova, M. and Riha, J. (2014). A simple model for the estimation of the number of fatalities due to floods in Central
De Bruijn, K.M. Klijn, F. van de Pas B. and Slager, CTJ. (2015). Flood fatality hazard and flood damage hazard: combining multiple hazard characteristics into meaningful maps for spatial planning. Natural Hazards Earth System Science, 15:1297–1309.
Di Mauro, M. De Bruijn, K.M. and Meloni, M. (2012). Quantitative methods for estimating flood fatalities: towards the introduction of loss-of-life estimation in the assessment of flood risk. Journal of Natural Hazard, 63:1083–1113.
Hansson, K. Danielson, M. and Ekenberg, L. (2008). A framework for the elevation of flood management strategies. Journal of Environmental Management, 86:465-480.
Haynes, K. Coates, L.de. Oliveira, F.D. Gissing, A. Bird, D. van den Honert, R. Radford, D. D’Arcy, R. and Smith, C. (2015). An analysis of human fatalities from flood hazards in Australia, 1900–2015. Floodplain Management, 29(1):75–97.
Jonkman, S.N. and Kelman, I. (2005). An analysis of the causes and circumstances of flood disaster deaths. , Vol. 29 No. 1 pp. 75-97.
Jonkman, S.N. and Penning-Rowsell, E. (2008). Human instability in floods flows. Journal of the American Water Resource Association, 44(4): 1-11.
Jonkman, S.N. Vrijling, J.K. and Vrouwenvelder, A.C.W.M. (2008). Methods for the estimation of loss of life due to floods: a literature review and a proposal for a new method. Journal of Natural Hazard, 46(3): 353–389.
Karbasi, M. Shokoohi, A. and Saghafian, B. (2018). Loss of life estimation due to flash floods in residential using a regional model. Journal of Water Resource Management, DOI 10.1007/s11269-018-2071-9.
Karbasi, M. Shokoohi, A. and Saghafian, B. (2019). Estimating the number of fatalities due to flash floods in residential areas. Journal of Iran-Water Resources Research, 15:236-246 (in Persian).
Karvonen, R.A. Hepojoki, A. Huhta, H.K. and Louhio, A. (2000). The use of physical models in dam-break analysis RESCDAM Final Report. Helsinki University of Technology, Helsinki
Loster, T. (1999). Flood trends and global change. In: Proceedings of Euroconference on global change and catastrophe risk management, 6-9 June, IISA Laxenburg, Austria. 
Luu, C. Von Meding, J. and Kanjanabootra, S. (2017). Analyzing flood fatalities in Vietnam using a national disaster database and tree-based methods. Natural Hazards Earth System Science Discussion, 155.
Penning-Rowsell, E. Floyd, P. Ramsbottom, D. and Surendran, S. (2005). Estimating injury and loss of life in floods: A deterministic framework. Journal of Natural Hazard, 36(1–2):43–64.
Ramsbottom, D. Wade, S. Bain, V. Hassan, M. Penning-Rowsell, E. Wilson, T. Fernandez, A. House, M. and Floyd, P. (2004). R&D outputs: flood risks to people. Phase 2. FD2321/IR2. Department for the Environment, Food, and Rural Affairs/ Environment Agency
Rashid, H. (2011). Interpreting flood disaster and flood hazard perception from a newspaper: table of two floods in the Red River Valley, Manitoba, Canada. Applied Geography, 31: 35-45.
Suetsugi, K. (1998). Control of floodwater and improvements of the evacuation system for floodplain management.In: Fukuoka S (ed) Floodplain risk management, Proceedings of an international workshop. Hiroshima, 11–13 November 1996, pp 191–207.
Tasnim News. (2019). https:// www. tasnimnews. com/ fa/ news/1398/01/01/1973448
The International Disaster Database (EM-DAT). (2016). http:\www.emdat.beabout.
Waarts, P. (1992). Method for determining the number of deaths due to inundation. Report TNO B-91-1099