The Impact of Climate Change on Reference Evapotranspiration in Mazandaran Province

Document Type : Research Paper


Department of Water Engineering,Faculty of Agricultural Engineering, Sari Agricultural Sciences and Natural Resources University,sari,Iran


Greenhouse gas emissions cause warming and impacting climate components and consequently affecting water demand in agricultural sector. This study aimed to identify the impact of climate change on reference evapotranspiration in Mazandaran province. For this purpose, climatic data of Gharakheil, Babolsar, Noshahr, and Ramsar weather stations were used during 1985-2005. Meteorological data for a future period (2006-2081) were estimated using the CanEMS2 model under RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 scenarios and the reference evapotranspiration was calculated using climatic data for future periods. The SVM model was used for downscaling the climatic parameters. The results showed that the maximum and minimum temperatures would increase over the coming period and the annual maximum temperatures in the selected meteorological stations under RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 scenarios will be increased by 1.5, 2, and 3° C, respectively. Minimum temperatures in the selected stations under RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 scenarios will be increased by 3.8, 5.7, and 5.7° C, respectively. Precipitation will also be reduced between 8 to 29 percent over the selected weather stations. The results show that the reference evapotranspiration will be increased or decrease in some months in all meteorological stations compared with the base period. The highest increase in maximum temperature under different climatic scenarios will be occured in March between 1.4 to 6.4° C at Babolsar Meteorological Station, and the highest increase in minimum temperature under different climatic scenarios will be occured between 3.8 to 5.7° C in February at the Gharakheil Meteorological Station. The results showed that the highest and lowest percentages of reference evapotranspiration changes would occur in October and March, respectively. Evaluation of the reference evapotranspiration at the selected stations shows that the percentage of evapotranspiration variations in different months varies between -16.1 to 25.7% and the highest increase and decrease in reference evapotranspiration will occur in Ramsar and Gharakheil stations, respectively.


Main Subjects

Acharjee, T. K., Ludwig, F., van Halsema, G., Hellegers, P., & Supit, I. (2017). Future changes in water requirements of Boro rice in the face of climate change in North-West Bangladesh. Agricultural Water Management, 194, 172-183.
Allen, R. G., Pereira, L. S., Raes, D., & Smith, M. (1998). Crop evapotranspiration-Guidelines for computing crop water requirements-FAO Irrigation and drainage paper 56. FAO, Rome, 300(9), D05109.
Barzegari, F. & Malekinezhad, H. (2019). Investigation of the Effects of Climate Change on Sustainability of Water Need and Water Consumption of Agricultural Section in the Yazd-Ardakan Plain. Journal of Agroecology. 10 (4), 1161- 1176.
Groisman, P.Y., Karl, T.R., Easterling, D.R., Knight, R.W., Jamason, P.F., Hennessy, K.J., et al., (1999). Changes in the probability of heavy precipitation: important indicators of climatic change. Clim. Change 42 (1), 243–283.
Hadi, F., Khashei Siuki, A., Shahidi, A. & Farzaneh, M. R. (2016). Examination the Effect of Climate Change on Potential Evapotranspiration in Different Climates. Iranian Journal of Irrigation and Drainage. 10 (2), 230-240. (In Farsi)
Huang, H.L. and Chang, F.L. (2007),”ESVM: Evolutionary support vector machine for automatic feature selection and classification of microarray data”, Biosystems, 90(2):516-528.
Heydari Tasheh Kaboud, H. & Khoshkhoo, Y. (2019). Projection and prediction of the annual and seasonal future reference evapotranspiration time scales in the West of Iran under RCP emission scenarios. Scientific Journals Management System. 19 (53), 157-176.
IPCC Data Distribution Center http://ipcc-ddc.cru.
IPCC, (2007). Intergovernmental panel on climate change. Climate change (2007):impacts, adaptation and vulnerability. In: Parry, M.L., Canziani, O.F., Palutikof,J.P., et al. (Eds.), Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
IPCC, (2013). Summary for policymakers. In: Stocker, T.F., Qin, D., Plattner, G.-K.,Tignor, M., Allen, S.K., Boschung, J., Nauels, A., Xia, Y., Bex, V., Midgley, P.M.(Eds.), Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA.
IPCC, (2014). Climate Change (2014): Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fifth
Islam, A., Ahuja, L. R., Garcia, L. A., Ma, L., & Saseendran, A. S. (2012). Modeling the effect of elevated CO2 and climate change on reference evapotranspiration in the semi-arid Central Great Plains. Transactions of the ASABE, 55(6), 2135-2146.
Khamchin Moghaddam, F., & Bashi Azghadi, S.N. (2018). Evaluation of sampling frequency from groundwater resources on pollution source identification characteristics. Iranian Water Research Journal. 12 (1), 113-121. (In Farsi)
Khashei, A., Shahidi, A., Pourrezabilondi, M., Amirabadizadeh, M., & jafarzadeh, A. (2018). Performance Assessment of ANN and SVR for downscaling of daily rainfall in dry regions. Iranian Journal of Soil and Water Research. 49 (4), 781-793. (In Farsi)
Moratiel, R., Snyder, R. L., Duran, J. M., & Tarquis, A. M. (2011). Trends in climatic variables and future reference evapotranspiration in Duero Valley (Spain). Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 11(6), 1795-1805.
Saadi, S., Todorovic, M., Tanasijevic, L., Pereira, L. S., Pizzigalli, C., & Lionello, P. (2015). Climate change and Mediterranean agriculture: impacts on winter wheat and tomato crop evapotranspiration, irrigation requirements and yield. Agricultural water management, 147, 103-115.
Schlenker, W., Hanemann, W.M., Fisher, A.C., (2007). Water availability, degree days and  the potential impact of climate change on irrigated agriculture in California. Clim. Change 81, 19–38.
Srivastava, A. K., Mboh, C. M., Zhao, G., Gaiser, T., & Ewert, F. (2017). Climate change impact under alternate realizations of climate scenarios on maize yield and biomass in Ghana. Agricultural Systems.
Sun, S. K., Li, C., Wu, P. T., Zhao, X. N., & Wang, Y. B. (2018). Evaluation of agricultural water demand under future climate change scenarios in the Loess Plateau of Northern Shaanxi, China. Ecological Indicators, 84, 811-819.
Sun, S.K., Wang, Y.B., Engel, B.A., Wu, P.T., (2016). Effects of virtual water flow on regional water resource stress: a case study of grain in China. Sci. Total Environ. 550, 871–879.
Valipour, M., Raeini-Sarjaz, M., & Sefidkouhi, M. A. G. (2018). Optimisation of cropping pattern considering stomatal response to elevated CO2 emission and climate change. International Journal of Global Warming, 15(2), 227-255.
Woznicki, S. A., Nejadhashemi, A. P., & Parsinejad, M. (2015). Climate change and irrigation demand: Uncertainty and adaptation. Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies, 3, 247-264.
Yarmohammadi, S., Zakerinia, M., Ghorbani, K . & Soltani, A. (2018). Investigation of the effect of climate change on evapotranspiration and wheat water requirement in Bojnord region. Journal of Water Resources Engineering 10 (35), 97-109. (In Farsi)