Assessing Precipitation and Reference Potential Evapotranspiration in the Current Climate and under CORDEX Climate Change Projections in Major Drylands Region of Kurdistan Province

Document Type : Research Paper

Authors

1 Ph.D. Student, Department of Agronomy and Plant Breeding, Faculty of Agricultural Science & Engineering, College of Agriculture & Natural Resources, University of Tehran. Karaj. Iran.

2 Professor, Department of Agronomy and Plant Breeding, Faculty of Agricultural Science & Engineering, College of Agriculture & Natural Resources, University of Tehran. Karaj. Iran.

3 Associate Professor, Department of Irrigation and Reclamation Engineering, Faculty of Agricultural Engineering & Technology, College of Agriculture & Natural Resources, University of Tehran. Karaj. Iran.

4 Associate Professor, Department of Agronomy and Horticultural Research, Sanandaj Agricultural and Natural Resources Research Center. Sanandaj. Iran.

Abstract

According to numerous reports about the global warming process and the fluctuations of rainfall, the study of climate change, especially in semi-arid regions of the country's dryland, is necessary in order to adapt to this phenomenon. The purpose of this study was to investigate the current process of climate change and the projection of CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5) climate models under the CORDEX (Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment) project in dryland areas of Kurdistan province. In this study, Sanandaj, Qorveh, and Zarineh stations were selected as the nearest synoptic meteorological stations to the agricultural research institutes of dryland in Kurdistan province. At first, bias correlation was done on downscaled data of the CORDEX project. Given that the future course of the project began in 2006 and continues until 2100, the data were divided into four time periods. The forecasted climatological data were compared with the observed data from 2006 to 2017, then the projection of climate models in the future periods was considered. The trend of climate change in the past, using the Mann-Kendall test and the Sen’s slope estimator, indicates a decrease in precipitation and an increase in temperature and potential evapotranspiration. The comparison between predicted and observed data during 2006-2017 showing the high accuracy for temperature and evapotranspiration estimation, and low accuracy for rainfall estimation. Also, according to the projection of climate models at the end of 21st century, temperature and evapotranspiration increase in all climatic models of all stations and fluctuations in rainfall are projected. While precipitation reduction in Sanandaj is expected, more precipitation will occur in Qorveh and Zarineh stations.

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References

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Iranian Journal of Soil and Water Research
Volume 50, Issue 10
March 2020
Pages 2583-2594

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