Evaluating Risk of Economic Loss due to River Flood in Urban areas (Study Area: Kan Watershed)

Document Type : Research Paper

Authors

1 PhD. Student, Water Engineering Department, Faculty of Agriculture and Natural Resources, Imam Khomeini International University, Qazvin, Iran

2 Professor, Water Engineering Department, Faculty of Agriculture and Natural Resources, Imam Khomeini International University, Qazvin, Iran

3 Assistant Professor, Water Engineering Department, Faculty of Agriculture and Natural Resources, Imam Khomeini International University, Qazvin, Iran

Abstract

In this paper, direct loss to structures and their properties due to rivers’ floods in urban areas was investigated. Risk evaluation and flood management require an algorithm for evaluating economic loss due to flood. In this research, hydraulic properties such as depth and flow velocity were used to detect the destroyable areas during the flood event. Then the flow depth was used to estimate the economic loss due to floods with different return periods; 2, 5, 10, 25, 50, 100 and 500-year. The economic loss due to floods was calculated using the depth–loss functions of five different models. Furthermore, the costs of expected annual damage (EAD) for structures in the study area were determined for plan floods, of which the critical areas at the region were distinguished. The results showed that using depth-loss function of Arrighi et al. (2013) is more logic in the study area and it can be employed for risk management and flood insurance studies when the proper data are not exist. Finally, the depth-loss functions’ uncertainty were investigated using the First Order Variance Estimation (FOVE) method and the estimated loss confidence interval was determined. The procedure introduced in this paper provides a tool for rapid and acceptable approximation for risk assessment in urban flood-prone areas, especially where detailed information about structures and their pertinent properties cannot be provided.

Keywords

Main Subjects


André, C. Monfort, D. Bouzit, M. and Vinchon, C. (2013). Contribution of insurance data to cost assessment of coastal Flood damage to residential buildings: insights gained from Johanna (2008) and Xynthia (2010) storm events. Journal of Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 13, 2003–2012
Arrighi, C. Brugioni, M. Castelli, F. Franceschini, S. and Mazzanti, B.(2013).Urban micro-scale flood risk estimation with parsimonious hydraulic modelling and census data. Journal of Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 13, 1375-1391.
Bubeck, P. and Kreibich, H. (2011). Natural Hazards: direct costs and losses due to the disruption of production processes. CONHAZ, Report WP1, D1.2.
Cammerer, H. Thieken, A. H. and Lammel, J. (2013). Adaptability and transferability of flood loss functions in residential areas. Journal of Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 13, 3063-3081.
HEC Life-Sim Userʼs Manua . (2018). Userʼs Manual of HEC Life-Sim life loss estimation. 216 p
Cornell, C. A. (1972). First-Order Analysis of Model and Parameter Uncertainty Proceedings of International Symposium on Uncertainties in Hydrologic and Water Resources Systems, 3, 1245–1272.
Debo, T. N. (1982). Urban flood damage estimating curves. Journal of the Hydraulics Division. Proceedings of the ASCE, 108(10), 1059-1069.
Dutta, D. Herath, S. and Musiake, K. (2003). A mathematical model for flood loss estimation. Journal of Hydrology, 277, 24–49.
European Commission (2007). A new EU Floods Directive. Retrieved November 26, 2007, from http://ec.europa.eu/environment/water/floodrisk/ index
FEMA. (2003). Hazard MH—Multi-hazard Loss Estimation Methodology. Federal Emergency Management Agency: USA
Ganji, Z. Shokoohi, A. and Singh, V.P. (2016). Evaluating the effect of discharge - probability function uncertainty on the risk of agricultural loss due to flood using Monte Carlo method. Iran-Water Resources Research, 12(2): 13-23. (In Farsi)
Genovese, E. (2006). A methodological approach to land use based flood damage assessment in urban areas: Prague case study. European Commission, Joint Research Centre.
Ghahroudi Tali, M. Majidi Heravi, A. and Abdoli, E. (2016). Urban Flood Vulnerability (Case study: Tehran, Darakeh to Kan). Journal of Geography and Environmental hazards, 17, 21-35. (In Farsi)
Handmer, J. (2003). The chimera of precision: Inherent uncertainties in disaster loss assessment. Australian Journal of Emergency Management, 18, 88–97.
Hansson, K. Danielson, M. and Ekenberg, L. (2008). A framework foe elevation of flood management strategies. Journal of Environmental Management, 86:465-480.
Huizinga, J. Moel, H. and Szewczyk, W. (2017). Global flood depth-damage functions. Methodology and the database with guidelines. EUR 28552 EN.
Hoshyarypour, F. Yazdi, J. Eftekhari, M. Javadi, F. and Sheshangosht, S. (2016) Flood management in Kan river basin using a simulation- optimization approach. Journal of Experimental Research in Civil Engineering, 3:73-89. (In Farsi)
Karbasi, M. Shokoohi, A. and Saghafian, B. (2019). Estimating Number of Fatalities Due to Flash Floods in Residential Areas. Iran-Water Resources Research, 15(1), 150-160 (In Farsi)
Kardan, N. Hassanzadeh, Y. and Arzanlou, A. (2018). 2D Numerical Simulation of urban floods usingCCHE2D (Case study: Aghghala city). Iranian Journal of Marine Technology, 4(4): 25:36. (In Farsi)
Kreibich, H. and Thieken, A. H. (2009). Coping with floods in the city of Dresden, Germany. Journal of Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 51(3), 423-436.
Loster, T. (1999). Flood trends and global change. In: proceedings of Euroconference on global change and catastrophe risk management, 6-9 June, IISA Laxenburg, Austria. 
Luino, F. Cirio, C. G. Biddoccu, M. Agangi, A. Giulietto, W. Godone, F. Nigrelli, G. (2009). Application of a model to the evaluation of flood damage. Journal of Geoinformatica, 13, 339-353.
Mays, L. W. and. Tung Y. K. (1992). Hydrosystems Engineering and Management, McGraw-Hill, New York.
Merz, B. Hall, J. Disse, M. and Schumann, A. (2010). Fluvial flood risk management in a changing world. Journal of Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 10, 509-527.
Merz, B. Kreibich, H. Schwarze, R. and Thieken, A. (2010). Assessment of economic flood damage. Journal of Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 10:1697-1724.
Meyer, V. Becker, N. Markantonis, V. Schwarze, R. van den Bergh, J. C. J. M. Bouwer, L. M. Bubeck, P. Ciavola, P. Genovese, E. Green, C. Hallegatte, S. Kreibich, H. Lequeux, Q. Logar, I. Papyrakis, E. Pfurtscheller, C. Poussin, J. Przyluski, V. Thieken, A. H. and Viavattene, C. (2013). Review article: Assessing the costs of natural hazards – state of the art and knowledge gaps. Journal of Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 13, 1351–1373.
Nascimento, N. Lea Machado, M. Baptista, M. De Paula, E. and Silva, A. (2007). The assessment of damage caused by floods in the Brazilian context. Journal of Urban Water, 4(3), 195-210.
Oliveri, E. and Santoro, M. (2000). Estimation of urban structural flood damages: the case study of Palermo. Urban Water, 2, 223–234.
Pandey, M. D. and Nathwani, J. S. (2004). Life quality index for the estimation of societal willingness-to-pay for safety. Journal of Structural Safety, 26,181-199.
Papathoma-Köhle, M. Zischg, A. Fuchs, S. Glade, T. and Keiler, M. (2015). Loss estimation for landslides in mountain areas
Parker, D. J. Green, C. H. and Thompson, P.M. (1987). Urban flood protection benefits: A project appraisal guide. Gower Technical Press, Aldershot.
Queensland Government. (2002). Disaster loss assessment guidelines, Illycroft Pty Ltd: Queensland, Australia, 111 p.
Rashid, H. (2011). Interpreting flood disaster and flood hazard perception from newspaper: table of two floods in the Red River valley, Manitoba, Canada. Applied Geography, 31, 35-45.
Sadeghlo, T. and Sajasi Gheidari, H. (2014). Flood risk management strategies in rural areas with models SWOT- TOPSIS. Journal of Geography and Environmental hazards, 12,105-128. (In Farsi)
Scorzini, A. R. and Frank, E. (2015). Flood damage curves: new insights from the 2010 flood in Veneto, Italy. Journal of Flood Risk Management, 10: 381-392.
Smith, D. I. (1994). Flood damage estimation – A review of urban stage-damage curves and loss functions. Journal of Water SA, 20, 231–238.
Smith, K. and Ward, R. (1998). Floods: Physical processes and human impacts. New York: Wiley.
The International Disaster Database (EM-DAT) (2016) http:\www.emdat.beabout
Thieken, A. H. Kreibich, H. Muller, M. and Merz, B. (2007). Coping with floods: preparedness, response and recovery of flood affected residents in Germany. Journal of Hydrological Sciences, 52(5), 1016-1037.
Tung, Y. K. (1993). Uncertainty and reliability analysis. In: Water Resources Handbook. Mays, L. W. McGraw-Hill. New York.
Tung, Y. K. and Yen, B. C. (2005) Hydrosystem engineering uncertainty analysis, McGraw-Hill. New York.
USACE. (1996). Risk-based analysis for flood damage reduction studies. Manual No. 1110-2-1619, 63 p.
USACE. (2006) Depth- damage relationship for structures, contents, vehicles, and content- to- structure value ratios (CSVR) in support of the Donaldsonville to the Gulf, Louisiana, feasibility study.Report No. 22316638.
Van der Sande, C. (2001). River flood damage assessment using IKONOS imagery. E.C. Joint Research Centre & S.A.I., Ispra, Italy, 77 p.