Investigation of the Effect of ENSO Hot Phase on the Instantaneous Floods in Two Climates of IRAN

Document Type : Research Paper


1 MSc in Water Resources Engineering, Department of Irrigation & Reclamation Engineering, University of Tehran, Karaj, Iran

2 Associate Professor, Department of Irrigation and Reclamation Engineering, University of Tehran, Karaj, Iran.

3 Professor, Department of Irrigation and Reclamation Engineering, University of Tehran, Karaj, Iran.


Considering the casualties and economic damage of flood, the study and analysis of this phenomenon is of great importance. Many studies demonstrated the effect of climate signals on the intensity, duration and timing of meteorological variables. In this paper the effects of positive phase (El Niño) of the South fluctuations of Pacific Ocean on the occurrence of floods in the Gorgan-Rood Gharesu basin (as a Wet and Mediterranean Climate) and also Tashk Bakhtegan Maharloo (as a Dry and Semiarid Climate) are investigated, using the Oceanic Niño (ONI) index. For this purpose, the “extreme value distributions of the Gumbel” and the “Time Variation Analysis” in two phases “neutral” and “the occurrence of El Niño” were employed. Results of Gumbel distribution and Maximum instantaneous discharge showed that there are influences of El Niño with 23 and 8 events in the Gorganrud-Gharesu basin and the Tashk-Bakhtegan-Maharlo basin, respectively. The results also showed that the effect of El Niño on time variation in the Gorganrud-Gharesu basin is greater than of Tashk-Bakhtegan-Maharlo basin. Moreover,  the ONI positive phase in the maximum instantaneous flood of the Gorganrud-Gharesu basin is more effective than the Tashk-Bakhtegan-Maharlo Basin.


Main Subjects

Aalto, R., Maurice-Bourgoin, L., Dunne, T., Montgomery, D. R., Nittrouer, C. A., & Guyot, J. L. (2003). Episodic sediment accumulation on Amazonian flood plains influenced by El Nino/Southern Oscillation. Nature, 425(6957), 493-497.
Allen, J. T., Tippett, M. K., & Sobel, A. H. (2015). Influence of the El Niño/Southern Oscillation on tornado and hail frequency in the United States. Nature Geoscience, 8(4), 278-283.
Cayan, D. R., Redmond, K. T., & Riddle, L. G. (1999). ENSO and hydrologic extremes in the western United States*. Journal of Climate12(9), 2881-2893.
Chiew, F. H., & McMAHON, T. A. (2002). Global ENSO-streamflow teleconnection, streamflow forecasting and interannual variability.Hydrological Sciences Journal47(3), 505-522.
Dezfooli D, Abdollahi B, Hosseini-Moghari S M, Ebrahimi K. (2018). Comparing high-resolution satellite precipitation estimates with gauge measured data, Case study: Gorganrood basin, Iran. Journal of Water Supply: Research and Technology. DOI: 10.2166/aqua.2018.062.
Fu, C., James, A. L., & Wachowiak, M. P. (2012). Analyzing the combined influence of solar activity and El Niño on streamflow across southern Canada. Water Resources Research48(5).
Gumbel, E. J. (1954). Statistical theory of extreme values and some practical applications: a series of lectures (No. 33). US Govt. Print. Office.
Kahya, E., & Çağatay Karabörk, M. (2001). The analysis of El Nino and La Nina signals in streamflows of Turkey. International Journal of Climatology,21(10), 1231-1250.
Kahya, E., & Dracup, J. A. (1994). The influences of type 1 El Nino and La Nina events on streamflows in the Pacific southwest of the United States.Journal of Climate7(6), 965-976.
Kovats, R. S. (2000). El Niño and human health. Bulletin of the World Health Organization, 78(9), 1127-1135.
Lee[A1] , J. H., & Julien, P. Y. (2017). Influence of the El Niño/Southern Oscillation on South Korean streamflow variability. Hydrological Processes.
Meidani, E., & Araghinejad, S. (2014). Long-lead streamflow forecasting in the southwest of Iran by sea surface temperature of the Mediterranean Sea. Journal of Hydrologic Engineering, 19(8), 05014005.
Munoz, S. E., & Dee, S. G. (2017). El Niño increases the risk of lower Mississippi River flooding. Scientific Reports7(1), 1772.
Nazemosadat, M. J., & Ghasemi, A. R. (2004). Quantifying the ENSO-related shifts in the intensity and probability of drought and wet periods in Iran. Journal of Climate17(20), 4005-4018.
Orlove, B. S., Chiang, J. C., & Cane, M. A. (2000). Forecasting Andean rainfall and crop yield from the influence of El Niño on Pleiades visibility. Nature, 403(6765), 68-71.
Power, S., Delage, F., Chung, C., Kociuba, G., & Keay, K. (2013). Robust twenty-first-century projections of El [thinsp] Nino and related precipitation variability. Nature, 502(7472), 541-545.
Rimbu, N., Dima, M., Lohmann, G., & Stefan, S. (2004). Impacts of the North Atlantic Oscillation and the El Nino–Southern Oscillation on Danube river flow variability. Geophysical Research Letters31(23).
Shin, H. S. (2002). Do el Niño and La Niña have influences on South Korean hydrologic properties. In Proceedings of the 2002 Annual Conference, Japan Society of Hydrology and Water Resources (pp. 276-282).
Varikoden, H., Al-Shukaili, H. S. A., Babu, C. A., & Samah, A. A. (2016). Rainfall over Oman and its teleconnection with El Niño Southern Oscillation. Arabian Journal of Geosciences9(8), 1-8.
Webb, R. H. (1992). El Nino/Southern Oscillation and streamflow in the western United States. El Nino: Historical and Paleoclimatic Aspects of the Southern Oscillation, H. E Diaz and V. Markgraf, Eds., Vol. 44.
Zubair, L. (2003). El Niño–southern oscillation influences on the Mahaweli streamflow in Sri Lanka. International Journal of Climatology23(1), 91-102.