Evaluation of the flexibility of reservoir system in terms of climate change in optimal supply of water

Document Type : Research Paper

Author

University of Qom

Abstract

Flexibility indicates the status of water supply, so that by increasing this index, the status of the water supply system will be better and periods of crisis will be going across with the least risk. The purpose of this research is the evaluation of flexibility of Gharanghu reservoir system (East Azerbaijan) in terms of climate change (2040-2069) for the three status’s (100, 85 and 70 % of water demand supply) in order to identify and manage periods of crisis. Climatic pre-processing for the present study is performed by HadCM3 (A2 emission scenarios) that those are as an input to the simulation models of inflow to the reservoir (IHACRES model) as well as water demand model (Cropwat model). The results show that the long-term average annual inflow volume in future (30-year) will decrease about 25 % compared to the baseline period (1971-2000). However, the average annual water demand volume for crops increases by 20 % compared to the baseline. Next, in order to optimize the operation of reservoir for water supply, objective function as minimization of total squared monthly deficiencies is determined. For this purpose, LINGO 11.0 software (NLP method) was used for solving the problem. Results show that in climate change condition for first situation (with supplying 100 % of demand) relative to baseline period, reliability index will be decreased (by 20 %). The declines for the second and third situations are 16 and 2 %, respectively.

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References

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Iranian Journal of Soil and Water Research
Volume 49, Issue 2
May and June 2018
Pages 269-279

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