An uncertainty analysis of general circulation models for estimation of soil moisture affected by climate change

Document Type : Research Paper


University of Birjand


Soil moisture is an important factor in hydrological processes. In this study, the uncertainty of AOGCM models to estimate soil moisture were investigated by SWAP model for the future period of 2099-2080. The climatology data were produced by ten AOGCM models and two emission scenarios of A2 and B1. Subsequently, the data were downscaled by LARS_WG model and then the resulting data were used in SWAP model. The research results showed that during the post-growth weeks, the INMCM3 and NCARPCM models had the highest and lowest amounts of soil moisture, respectively. The uncertainty of annual soil moisture indicated that the INMCM3 model had the highest uncertainty band for A2 and B1 scenarios, and the GISS-ER and CGCM3T47 models had the lowest uncertainty band for A2 and B1 scenarios, respectively. Also, by comparing the moisture in soil depths of 60 cm and 30 cm, it was determined that the moisture in the depth of 60 cm would be higher compared to the depth of 30 cm.


Main Subjects

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