Drought monitoring in the last two centuries in the arid and semi-arid reigon using dendrochronology, a Case Study of Karkheh basin

Document Type : Research Paper

Authors

1 PhD student / Tehran University

2 Associate Professor/ Tehran University

3 PhD Student /Tehran University

Abstract

Through a measurement of the annual growth of a tree ring and finding out of its chronology, the possibility of study and reconstruction of Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) in the habitat areas is provided. The aim followed in this research is to reconstruct PDSI using dendrochronology, and drought monitoring within Karkheh basin. Throughout the research the chronology index of two tree species, namely Quercus brantii, and Quercus infectoria, in the central Zagross region during the period of 1840-2010 were used to reconstruct Palmer Drought Severity Index in KarkhehBasin. Correlations between Palmer Drought Severity Index and regional chronology index were positive and significant within 1% of confidence level. With regard to this fact, the Palmer Drought Severity Indexes from year 1840 to 2010 were reconstructed. The values of observed vs. reconstructed Palmer Drought Severity Index within the common statistical period are consistent with each other. Within further steps, the hydrological conditions during chronology period were studied and accordingly, hydrological drought was analyzed within the Basin for years, 1840 to 2010. Severity and duration of the droughts as well as decades of the highest number of drought and wet events were determined. In addition, the results were compared with those obtained by other researchers as well.

Keywords

References

Akkemik, U., and Aras, A. (2005). Reconstruction (1689–1994) of April-August precipitation in southwestern part of central Turkey. International Journal of Climatology, 25, 537–548.
Akkemik, U., Dagdeviren, N., and Aras, N. (2005). A preliminary reconstruction (A.D. 1635–2000) of spring precipitation using oak tree rings in the western Black Sea region of Turkey. International Journal of Biometeorology, 49(5), 297–302.
Akkemik, U., D’Arrigo, R., Cherubini, P., Köse, N., and Jacoby G. C. (2008). Tree-ring reconstructions of precipitation and streamflow for north-western Turkey. International Journal of Climatology, 28, 173–183.
Akkemik, U., Nüzhet, D. H., and Ozeren, M. S. (2011). Tree-ring Reconstructions of May–June Precipitation for Western Anatolia. Quaternary Research, 75(3), 438-450.
Arsalani, M. (2012). Reconstruction of precipitation and temperature variations using Oak tree rings in central Zagros, M.A. dissertation, University of Tehran, Faculty of Geography, Tehran, Iran.
Arsalani, M., Azizi, GH., and Bräuning, A. (2015). Dendroclimatic reconstruction of May–June maximum temperatures in the central Zagros Mountains, western Iran. International Journal of Climatology, 35: 408–416.
Azadi, S., Soltani, S., Faramarzi, M., Soltani todeshki, A. R., and Pour manafi, S. (2015). Palmer drought index in areas of Central Iran. Journal of Science and Technology of Agriculture and Natural Resources, water and soil sciences, 19(72), 305-318.
Carson, E. C., and Munroe, J. S. (2005). Tree-ring based streamflow reconstruction for Ashley Creek, northeastern Utah: implications for palaeohydrology of the southern Uinta Mountains. The Holocene, 15(4), 602-611.
Cook, E. R., (1985). A time series analysis approach to tree-ring standardization. Un published Ph.D. Dissertation, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ, USA, P. 171.
D’Arrigo, R., and Cullen, H. M. (2001). A 350-year (AD 1628–1980) reconstruction of Turkish precipitation. Dendrochronologia, 19(2), 169–177.
Dai, A., K. E. Trenberth and T. Qian. 2004. A global data set of Palmer Drought Severity Index for 1870-2002: relationship with soil moisture and effects of surface warming. J. Hydrometeorol, 5, 1117–1130.
Eckstein, D. (2005). Human time in tree rings. Abstract book of Eurodendro. International Conference of Dendrochronology, September, 28-October 2nd, Viterbo – Italy.
Foroughi, F., Araghinejad, Sh., Azizi, Gh., and Arsalani, M. (2016). Streamflow reconstruction using dendrochronology, and modeling and classification of hydrological drought in Karkheh basin. Iranian Journal of Soil and Water Research, 46(4), 617-629.
Fritts, H. C. (1976) Tree rings and climate. Academic press, University of Arizona, Tucson, 567p.
Fritts, H. C., Guiot, J., Gordon, G. A., and Schweingruber, F. (1990.) Methods for calibration, verification and reconstruction. In: Kairiukstis L, Cook E, eds Methods of Tree-Ring Analysis: Applications in the Environmental Sciences, Reidel Press, Dordrecht. pp. 163-218.
Garcia- Suarez, A. M., Butler, C.J., Bailli, and M. G. L. (2009). Climate signal in tree-ring chronologies in temperature climate: A multi-species approach. Dendrochronologia, 27, 183-198.
Heim R.R. (2000). Drought indices: a review. In: Wilhite DA (ed) Drought: a global assessment. Routledge, London.
Hessari, B,. Bruggeman, A,. Akhoond-Ali1, A., Oweis, T., and Abbasi, F. (2012). Supplemental irrigation potential and impact on downstream flow of Karkheh River Basin of Iran. Hydrology and Earth System Science. Discussions, 9, 13519–13536.
Hughes, M. K, Kuniholm, P. I, Garfin, G. M, Latini, C, and Eischeid, J. (2001). Aegean tree-ring signature years explained. Tree-ring Research, 57(1), 67-73.
Jamab Consulting Engineers. (2006). Water balance report of Karkheh River basin area: Preliminary analysis, Ministry of Energy, Tehran. Iran.
Karamouz, M., and Araghinejad, Sh. (2010) Advance Hydrology. Amir Kabir University Press, Tehran, Iran.
Kim, T. J., B. Valdes and J. Aparicio.(2002). Frequency and spatial characteristics of in the Conchos River Basin, Mexico. Water International,  27,(3) 420- 430.
Kothavala, Z. (1999). The duration and severity of drought over eastern Australia simulated by a coupled ocean–atmosphere GCM with a transient increase in CO2. J. Environ. Model. Softw. 14: 243-252.
Kuniholm, P.I. 1996. Long tree-ring chronologies for the eastern Mediterranean. Archaeometry 1994. In Proceedings of the 29th International Symposium on Archaeometry, Ankara, Turkey; 401–409.
Liu J., Yang, B., and Chun, Q. (2010). Tree-ring Based Annual Precipitation Reconstruction Since AD 1480 in South Central Tibet. Quaternary International, 236, 75-81.
Lorenz, E. N. (1956). Empirical Orthogonal Functions and StatisticalWeather Prediction. M. I. T. stat. forecasting proj. Sci. Rep 1, Contract No. AF 19(604)-1566.
Nadi M., Bazrafshan J., Pourtahmasi K., and Brauning A. (2015). Relationship between oak's tree-ring width and climatic indices (in regional and global scales) in Javanroud region, Kermanshah. Journal of water and soil conservation, 22(3), 57-71.
Ottoman Archive. (2008) Documents (correspondences between Ottoman Palace and provinces) in the directory of State Archives of Prime Ministry of Republic of Turkey, (In Turkish) reported by Akkemik et al (2008).
Palmer, W. C. (1965). Meteorological Drought. Research. Paper No. 45, U. S. Department of Commerce Weather Bureau, Washington, D.C.
Patskoski, J. (2012). Predicting streamflow in the southeastern United States using SST and tree ring chronologies. MSc. Thesis, Civil Engineering, North Carolina State University, Raleigh.
Purgstall B. J. V. H. (1983). Ottoman State History, Translator: Vecdi Bürün, 1–7, Ücdal Publishing (In Turkish), Istanbul.
Shafiei, M., Ghahraman, B., Ansari, H., and Sharifi, M. B. (2011). Stochastic Simulation of Drought Severity Based on Palmer Index. Journal of Water and Irrigation Management, 1(1), 1-13.
Somaru, R., H. P. Borgaonkar. A. A. Munot and A. B. Sikder. 2011. Tree-ring variation in teak Tectona grandis from Allapalli, Maharashtra in relation to moisture and Palmer Drought Severity Index. J. Earth. Syst. Sci, 120,713-721.
Touchan, R,. Garfin, G. M, Meko, D. M, Funkhouser, G., Erkan, N., Hughes, M. K, and Wallin, B. S. (2003). Preliminary reconstructions of spring precipitation in southwestern Turkey from tree-ring width. International Journal of Climatology, 23, 157–171.
Touchan, R., Funkhouser, G., Malcolm, K., Hughes, M. K., and Erkan, N. (2005a). Standardized precipitation index reconstructed from Turkish tree-ring widths. Climatic Change; 72(3), 339-353.
Touchan, R., Xoplaki, E., Funchouser, G., Luterbacher, J., Hughes, M. K., Erkan, N., Akkemik, U., and Stephan, J. (2005b). Reconstruction of spring/summer precipitation for the Eastern Mediterranean from tree ring widths and its connection to large-scale atmospheric circulation. Climate Dynamics,25, 75–98.
Touchan, R., Akkemik, U., Hughes, M. K., and Erkan, N. (2007). May-June Precipitation reconstruction of southwestern Anatolia, Turkey during the Last 900 years from tree rings. Quaternary Research, 68, 196-202.
Watson, E., and Luckman, B. H. (2004). Tree-ring based reconstructions of precipitation for the southern Canadian cordillera. Climatic Change, 65, 209-241.
Wigley, T. M. L., Briffa, K. R., Jones, P. D. (1984). On the average value of correlated time series with applications in Dendroclimatology and Hydrometeorology. Journal of Climate and Applied Meteorology 23, 201–213.
Wilson, R. J. S., Luckman, B. H, Esper, H. (2005). A 500 year dendroclimatic reconstruction of spring-summer precipitation from the lower Bavarian forest region. Germany, International Journal of Climatology, 25(5), 611-630.
Yevjevich, V. (1967). An objectives approach to definition and investigations of continental droughts. Hydrology Paper, 23, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, Colorado.
Yinpeng, L., Y. Wei, W. Meng and Y. Xiaodong. 2009. Climate change and drought: a risk assessment of crop yield impacts. J. Clim, 39, 31-46.
Iranian Journal of Soil and Water Research
Volume 48, Issue 2
August 2017
Pages 263-273

Files

Share

How to cite

Statistics