پایش خشکسالی در دو قرن اخیر در مناطق خشک و نیمه‌خشک با استفاده از گاه‌شناختی درختی، مطالعه موردی حوضه کرخه

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دکتری پردیس کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی کرج-مربی دانشگاه شیراز

2 دانشیار/دانشکده مهندسی و فناوری کشاورزی دانشگاه تهران

3 دانشیار / دانشگاه تهران

4 دانشجو دکتری/ دانشگاه تهران

چکیده

با اندازه­گیری حلقه­های رویشی سالیانه درختان و ساخت گاه­شناسی از آن­ها، امکان مطالعه و بازسازی شاخص شدت خشکسالی پالمر در محدوده رویشگاه­ها فراهم می­شود. هدف از انجام این پژوهش، بازسازی شاخص شدت خشکسالی پالمر با استفاده از گاه­شناسی درختی و پایش خشکسالی در حوضه کرخه می­باشد. در این تحقیق از شاخص گاه­شناسی درختی منطقه­ای زاگرس مرکزی دو گونه درختی، بلوط ایرانی (Quercus brantii) و بلوط مازو (Quercus infectoria) طی دوره 1840-2010 برای بازسازی شاخص شدت خشکسالی پالمر در حوضه کرخه استفاده شده است. با توجه به همبستگی مثبت و معنادار شاخص شدت خشکسالی پالمر با شاخص گاه­شناسی درختی منطقه­ای، مقادیر شاخص شدت خشکسالی پالمر طی سال­های 1840 تا 2010 بازسازی شد. مقادیر محاسباتی شاخص شدت خشکسالی پالمر و مقادیر بازسازی‌شده آن در دوره آماری مشترک به‌خوبی با هم مطابقت دارند. در ادامه وضعیت هیدرولوژیکی در طول دوره گاه­شناسی مورد بررسی قرار گرفت و بر این اساس خشکسالی هیدرولوژیکی در حوضه کرخه برای سال­های 1840 تا 2010 بررسی شد. شدت و تداوم خشکسالی­ها و همچنین دهه­هایی با بیشترین تعداد رویدادهای خشکسالی و ترسالی تعیین گردید. همچنین نتایج این تحقیق با سایر محققین نیز مقایسه گردید. بر این اساس شدیدترین کم‌آبی (خشکسالی) در کل دوره بازسازی 1840 تا 2010 برای ایستگاه کاکارضا مربوط به سال­های 2004-1999 بوده است. شدیدترین کم آبی (خشکسالی) بازسازی‌شده در قرن 19 و 20 به ترتیب در سال­های 1853 تا 1855 و 1966 تا 1968 بوده است.

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

Drought monitoring in the last two centuries in the arid and semi-arid reigon using dendrochronology, a Case Study of Karkheh basin

نویسندگان [English]

  • Farid Foroughi 1
  • Shahab Araghinejad 2
  • Ghasem Azizi 3
  • Mohsen Arsalani 4
1 PhD student / Tehran University
2 Associate Professor/ Tehran University
3 Associate Professor/ Tehran University
4 PhD Student /Tehran University
چکیده [English]

Through a measurement of the annual growth of a tree ring and finding out of its chronology, the possibility of study and reconstruction of Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) in the habitat areas is provided. The aim followed in this research is to reconstruct PDSI using dendrochronology, and drought monitoring within Karkheh basin. Throughout the research the chronology index of two tree species, namely Quercus brantii, and Quercus infectoria, in the central Zagross region during the period of 1840-2010 were used to reconstruct Palmer Drought Severity Index in KarkhehBasin. Correlations between Palmer Drought Severity Index and regional chronology index were positive and significant within 1% of confidence level. With regard to this fact, the Palmer Drought Severity Indexes from year 1840 to 2010 were reconstructed. The values of observed vs. reconstructed Palmer Drought Severity Index within the common statistical period are consistent with each other. Within further steps, the hydrological conditions during chronology period were studied and accordingly, hydrological drought was analyzed within the Basin for years, 1840 to 2010. Severity and duration of the droughts as well as decades of the highest number of drought and wet events were determined. In addition, the results were compared with those obtained by other researchers as well.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Palmer Drought Severity Index
  • Dendroclimatology
  • tree ring
  • Drought Monitoring
  • Karkheh basin
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