مدل‌سازی و شبیه‌سازی آثار بلندمدت استفاده از فاضلاب تهران بر منابع آب و خاک دشت ورامین با استفاده از مدل‌سازی پویای سیستم‌ها

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 استاد گروه آبیاری دانشگاه تهران

2 دانشجوی دکتری گروه آبیاری دانشگاه تهران

3 استادیار گروه آبیاری دانشگاه بین‌المللی امام خمینی(ره)

چکیده

با توجه به تعدد عوامل اثرگذار بر بهره‌برداری از پساب، تدوین مدلی که بتواند همة ابعاد و برهم‌کنش‌های‌ عوامل مختلف بهره‌برداری را شبیه‌سازی کند ضروری است. هدف این مطالعه بررسی آثار بلندمدت استفاده از فاضلاب تهران بر منابع آب و خاک دشت ورامین با استفاده از مدل‌سازی پویای سیستم‌ها بود. سناریوهای ارزیابی‌شده شامل سناریوهای مختلف کاربرد پساب و الگوی کشت و کم‌آبیاری بود. نتایج صحت‌سنجی مدل نشان‌دهندة کارایی مدل توسعه‌یافته در شبیه‌سازی سطح آب زیرزمینی (RMSE برابر 37 سانتی‌متر، R2 برابر 99/0، ماکزیمم خطای 45 سانتی‌متر) و شوری آب زیرزمینی (RMSE برابر 57 میکروزیمنس بر سانتی‌متر، R2 برابر 79/0، ماکزیمم خطای 148 میکروزیمنس بر سانتی‌متر) است. همچنین نتایج شبیه‌سازی نشان داد حفظ شرایط موجود منجر به تخریب کامل آب‌خوان تا سال 1420 می‌شود. همچنین، در صورت اختصاص 200 میلیون متر مکعب فاضلاب تصفیه‌شده به کشاورزی در فصل زراعی و 40 میلیون متر مکعب به تغذیة مصنوعی در فصل غیر زراعی، تخریب آب‌خوان تا سال 1455 به‌تعویق می‌افتد. در صورت اعمال سناریوی تخصیص پساب و افزایش 11 درصدی راندمان، چه از طریق کم‌آبیاری و چه از طریق توسعة سیستم‌های تحت ‌فشار، دستیابی به پایداری منابع آب ورامین ممکن می‌شود.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات

عنوان مقاله [English]

Modeling and Simulation of Long-term Effects of Irrigation with Tehran Treated Wastewater on Water and Soil Resources using Dynamic Systems Modeling

نویسندگان [English]

  • TAYMOR SOHRABI MOLAYOUSEF 1
  • ABDOLMAJID LIAGHAT 1
  • HAMZEHALI ALIZADEH 2
  • BIJAN NAZARI 3
1 Professor, Irrigation and Recla. Eng. Dept. UNIVERSITY OF TEHRAN
2 PhD Student, Irrigation and Recla. Eng. Dept. UNIVERSITY OF TEHRAN
3 Assistant Professor, Irrigation and Recla. Eng. Dept Imam Khomeini International University
چکیده [English]

Many factors affect wastewater management and utilization plans’ success with any change occurring in any of these factors leading to various feedbacks on other elements of wastewater use system. Hence, development of a model with the capability of simulation of all factors, aspects and interactions that affect wastewater utilization indispensable. The objective followed in this study was to model and make simulation of long-term effects of irrigation with Tehran treated wastewater on the water and soil resources’ System Dynamics (SD) modeling method. The developed SD model validation process revealed that the model benefits from the needed acceptable efficiency. Nine possible scenarios in wastewater allocation, crop pattern as well as deficit irrigation were studied. Model results warned that the current condition if continued would lead to complete degradation of groundwater resources by 2042. Also, the results indicated that wastewater allocation can postpone the degradation of ground water resource (up to 2067). Wastewater allocation together with 11 % decrease in agricultural demand (through either deficit irrigation or modern irrigation systems’ development) can result in a sustainable use of water resources as in Varamin Area, Iran.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Feedback
  • Wastewater
  • groundwater

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