Risk Assessment of Climatic Constraints During Different Phenological Stages of Canola in Golestan Province Under Current and Future Climate Change

Articles in Press

Document Type : Research Paper

Authors

1 Department of Irrigation & Reclamation Engineering, Faculty of Agricultural Engineering and Technology, University of Tehran, Karaj, Iran

2 Department of Irrigation and Reclamation Engineering, College of Agricultural and Natural Resources, University of Tehran, Karaj, Iran.

Abstract

This research investigates the projected impacts of future climate change on the vulnerability to climate-related constraints during the canola cultivation cycle within Golestan Province, Iran. Following meticulous data quality assessment and the statistical imputation of any identified gaps, outputs from two representative global climate models, simulated under the intermediate Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP2 4.5) scenario, were downscaled for the near term future (2023–2053) utilizing the LARS WG . Subsequently, the phenological progression of canola through its four developmental stages was delineated for both the historical baseline period (1992–2022) and the projected future climate, employing a growing degree day (GDD) model. A suite of eight key agroclimatic indices was then formulated, and their temporal variations were quantified across both the baseline and future scenarios for each phenological phase. Our findings reveal a discernible trend towards increased annual precipitation in nine months and statistically significant warming across nearly all months for both minimum and maximum temperatures when compared to the baseline. Under the projected climate change scenario, a notable shortening of the canola emergence and vegetative phases is anticipated, while the reproductive and maturation periods are expected to lengthen. Furthermore, the analysis highlights an augmented risk of frost damage during the critical reproductive stage, a diminished likelihood of satisfying the necessary vernalization (chilling) requirements in the vegetative phase, alongside an elevated probability of both extreme drought conditions and intense precipitation events throughout the entire canola phenological cycle.

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Iranian Journal of Soil and Water Research

Articles in Press, Accepted Manuscript
Available Online from 14 June 2026

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