From consumption monitoring to response to water footprint unsustainability: Integrated multi-objective optimization of cropping patterns with a holistic-detail approach (Case study: Markazi Province)

Document Type : Research Paper

Authors

1 Irrigatin and reclamation Engineering Department, College of Agriculture and Natural Resources, University of Tehran, Karaj, Iran.

2 Irrigation and reclamation engineering department,college of agricultural and natural resources,University of Tehran.

3 Irrigation and reclamation engineering department college of agricultural and natural resources University of Tehran,Iran.

4 Department of Water Sciences and Engineering, Arak University

Abstract

Due to the limitation of water resources and the need to manage water demand, especially in the agricultural sector, it is necessary to develop effective strategies to reduce pressure on water resources. The present study aimed to provide a model for cropping pattern optimization at the county level, based on the water footprint index, and economic and environmental considerations. Using climatic, agronomic, and economic data over a 10-year period, the blue and green water footprints were calculated for 18 crops in both irrigated and rainfed cultivations. Then, the cropping pattern optimization was designed with the NSGA-II multi-objective algorithm. Two objective functions were defined, including reducing the ratio of blue water to green water consumption, and increasing net economic profit, along with food and environmental security constraints. The results showed that in cropping patterns with greater freedom, the ratio of blue water to green water decreased by more than 35% at the provincial level. In some counties, the volume of blue water consumption was estimated to be more than 60 MCM lower than the baseline. The cultivated area in irrigated and rainfed lands decreased by about 25%, and increased by more than 30%, respectively, which led to a shift in the balance of resource extraction in favor of green water. Water resource sustainability using the Blue Water Shortage (BWS) index was also maintained or improved in all counties, with a distribution around the optimal value of one. From an economic point of view, in scenarios with more freedom, the net economic benefit remained relatively stable compared to the baseline situation. The findings emphasize the effectiveness of an integrated approach based on water footprint and multi-objective optimization of cropping patterns.

Keywords

Main Subjects

Introduction

Increasing pressure on water resources, instability in agricultural production systems, and climate change have made the need to review water consumption patterns and manage its demand to a fundamental necessity in arid and semi-arid regions. The Water Accounting, as an analytical tool for quantifying and monitoring water inflows, outflows, and consumption, provides a new platform for data-driven decision-making. The importance of this tool doubles when water resources management focuses not only on supply, but also on monitoring and optimizing demand and increasing water productivity in the face of increasing demand. The Water Footprint concept, as an analytical and applied indicator within the water accounting framework, plays a prominent role in understanding and managing water demand.

Method

In this regard, the present study aimed to provide a model for cropping pattern optimization at the county level, based on the water footprint index and economic, and environmental considerations. For this purpose, using climatic, agronomic, and economic data over a 10-year period, the blue and green water footprints were calculated for 18 crops in both irrigated and rainfed cultivations. Then, the cropping pattern optimization was designed with the NSGA-II multiobjective algorithm. Two objective functions were defined, including reducing the ratio of blue water to green water consumption, and increasing net economic profit, along with food and environmental security constraints. The analyzes were done in the form of six scenarios, based on different degrees of freedom in changes in the cropping pattern.

Results

The results showed that in cropping patterns with greater freedom, the ratio of blue water to green water decreased by more than 35% at the provincial level. In some counties, the volume of blue water consumption was estimated to be more than 60 million cubic meters lower than the baseline. Also the volume of green water consumption was estimated to be more than 29 and 84 million cubic meters in irrigated and rainfed lands, respectively upper than the intial condition in some counties. The cultivated area in irrigated and rainfed lands decreased by about 25%, and increased by more than 30%, respectively, which led to a shift in the balance of resource extraction in favor of green water. Water resource sustainability using the Blue Water Shortage (BWS) index was also maintained or improved in all counties, with a distribution around the optimal value of one. From an economic point of view, in scenarios with more freedom, the net economic benefit remained relatively stable compared to the baseline situation. Meanwhile, according to the limits and goals, the share of production of crops with low water-economic efficiency in the cropping pattern was decreased.

Conclusions

The findings emphasize the effectiveness of an integrated approach based on water footprint and multi-objective optimization of cropping patterns. Also, considering smaller county scales in decision-making, and designing cropping patterns in the form of an interconnected provincial system, can pave the way for more accurate, coordinated, and consistent decision-making with the ecological and institutional characteristics of each region for effective policy-making in managing water demand in the agricultural sector.

Author Contributions

Conceptualization, S.F., M.P. and M.A.; methodology, S.F., F.M. and M.A.; software, S.F. and M.A.; validation, S.F., F.M. and M.A.; formal analysis, S.F. and M.A.; investigation, S.F., F.M. and M.A.; resources, S.F.; data curation, S.F. and M.P.; writing—original draft preparation, S.F., F.M. and M.A.; writing—review and editing, S.F., F.M. and M.A.; visualization, S.F. and M.A.; supervision, F.M. and M.P.; project administration, F.M. and M.P.; funding acquisition, F.M. and M.P.; All authors have read and agreed to the published version of the manuscript.

Data Availability Statement

Data available on request from the authors.

Acknowledgements

The authors wish to acknowledge the support from the University of Tehran, Iran for providing the financial support for this research project.

Ethical considerations

The authors avoided data fabrication, falsification, plagiarism, and misconduct.

Conflict of interest

The author declares no conflict of interest.

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Iranian Journal of Soil and Water Research
Volume 56, Issue 8
November 2025
Pages 1987-2011

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