Simulation of Rainfall-Runoff in Tajan Basin under Different Scenarios of Climate Change

Document Type : Research Paper

Authors

1 Water Eng. Department, Faculty of Agricultural Engineering, Sari Agricultural Sciences and Natural Resources University, Sari, Iran.

2 Faculty Member, Water Engineering Department, Agricultural Eng. College, Sari Agricultural Sciences and Natural Resources University, Sari, Iran.

3 Mazandaran Regional Water Company Studies Office, Sari, Iran.

Abstract

Determining and predicting runoff is a crucial step in the proper use of water resources. This research aims to calibrate and validate the HEC-HMS model and simulate rainfall-runoff for continuous data series in the Tajan basin based on climate change Scenarios. In this research, the data recorded during the years 2002-2009 were used for the calibration stage and the data recorded during the years 2010-2016 were used for the verification stage. The results of model calibration showed that the correlation coefficient between observed and simulated discharge values was equal to 0.81 and the Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient was equal to 0.68, which indicates a good match between the mentioned data. Also, in the verification stage, the correlation index and Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient were equal to 0.80 and 0.63, respectively, confirming that the model shows a good estimate for the observations. In the next step, data values in the daily time scale for the period of 2020-2049 were loaded in the model and basin runoff was simulated for this period. The results showed that the amount of discharge in the future period compared to the base period would decrease strongly under both RCP 8.5 and RCP 2.6 climate change scenarios, and only in the RCP 8.5 scenario, the discharge will increase a little compared to the base period in August, September, October and November. The simulation results showed that the amount of discharge in summer and autumn under the RCP 8.5 scenario will increase more than in the RCP 2.6 scenario.

Keywords

Main Subjects

EXTENDED ABSTRACT

 

Introduction

Flood is one of the main known natural disasters in the world, which imposes a lot of damage on human societies, institutions, industrial centers and agricultural lands, especially in the vicinity of rivers, but the worrying point is the increasing trend of flood losses in the world in recent decades, which is mostly due to The reason is human intervention in nature and disrupting its balance. Among the usual methods for investigating floods include regional flood analysis methods, using empirical relationships and rainfall-runoff simulation models. The application of precipitation-runoff models as well as the development of calibration methods using GIS is increasingly expanding. In this research, in order to simulate rainfall-runoff and determine the outflow hydrograph of Tajen catchment under RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5 scenarios, HEC-HMS model has been used. The HEC-HMS model represents the watershed as an interconnected system with hydrological and hydraulic components. Each component simulates an aspect of the rainfall-runoff process within a part of the catchment called a sub-catchment. Also, by entering the information related to the characteristics of the basin and its components, the simulation is done to transform precipitation into runoff and the runoff hydrograph is produced.

Materials and Methods

Tajan basin, with an approximate area of 4026.6 square meters, is located in the geographical range of 53 degrees 7 minutes to 53 degrees 42 minutes east longitude and 35 degrees 56 minutes to 36 degrees 17 minutes north latitude in Mazandaran province and in terms of divisions Politically, it is located in the territory of Sari city.

In the continuous simulation method, the soil is considered as a single layer and infiltration takes place when the soil is saturated. This method should be used in combination with a meteorological model that calculates evaporation and transpiration, so that, with the help of the meteorological model, the amount of potential evaporation and transpiration, which indicates the amount of soil drying between two rainfalls, is calculated. SCS unit hydrograph method was used to convert precipitation into runoff and drying method was used to simulate continuous events to simulate base flow. The drying method is used when a certain behavior is determined in the basin and the channel flow recedes exponentially after the precipitation event.

 In this study, first the variables of precipitation and temperature were entered into the model, then the model parameters was calculated for different calibration statistical periods. The hydrographs generated from the scenarios of the adjusted model parameters were compared with the observed hydrographs of Kordkheil station. For continuous simulation, the period 2002 to 2009 was used for the calibration and 2010 to 2016 for the validation. After calibration and evaluation of the model, daily precipitation data of the basin average and average temperature in the period 2049-2020 were generated for the basin.

Result and Discussion

The results showed that the amount of discharge in the future period compared to the base period under both scenarios was a decrease in all months except May, June and July, and its increase in the mentioned three months is probably due to the increase in temperature and melting of snow in these months. In general, the simulation results showed that the amount of discharge in summer and autumn under the RCP 8.5 scenario will increase more than the RCP 2.6 scenario.

Conclusion

According to the results obtained and also the changes in climate variables that will occur in the future, it is suggested that the officials and planners of the agriculture, water resources, and environment, industry and economy sectors take the necessary solutions to reduce the consequences and adapt to new climate conditions.

Author Contributions

Conceptualization, R.Fazloula. and E.Nikzad Tehrani.; methodology, F.Heidari Chenari. and R.Fazloula.; software, F.Heidari Chenari. and E.Nikzad Tehrani.; validation, F.Heidari Chenari., R.Fazloula. and E.Nikzad Tehrani.; formal analysis, F.Heidari Chenari.; investigation, F.Heidari Chenari.; resources, F.Heidari Chenari., R.Fazloula. and E.Nikzad Tehrani.; data curation, F.Heidari Chenari. and R.Fazloula.; writing—original draft preparation, F.Heidari Chenari., R.Fazloula. and E.Nikzad Tehrani.; writing—review and editing, F.Heidari Chenari., R.Fazloula. and E.Nikzad Tehrani.; visualization, F.Heidari Chenari.; supervision, R.Fazloula.; project administration, R.Fazloula.; funding acquisition, F.Heidari Chenari. and R.Fazloula. All authors have read and agreed to the published version of the manuscript.

Data Availability Statement

Data available on request from the authors.

Acknowledgements

The authors would like to thank all participants of the present study.

Ethical considerations

The authors avoided data fabrication, falsification, plagiarism, and misconduct.

Conflict of interest

The author declares no conflict of interest.

References

Almasi, Parisa., Soltani, Saeed., Goodarzi, Masoud., & Modarres, Ali. (2017). Assessment the Impacts of Climate Change on Surface Runoff in Bazoft Watershed. Journal of Water and Soil Science 78(20): 39 – 52. (In Persian)
Babaian, Iman., Najafi Nik, Zahra., Zabul Abbasi, Fatemeh., Habibi Nokhandan, Majid., Adab, Hamed., & Malbousi, Sharareh. (2009). Assessment of climate change in the period of 2010-2039 using the exponential microscale data of ECHO-G atmospheric general circulation model. Journal of Geography and Development 16:152-135. (In Persian)
Daide, F., Afgane, R., Lahrach, A., Chaouni, A., Msaddek, M., & Elhasnaoui, I. (2021). Application of the HEC-HMS hydrological model in the Beht watershed (Morocco). E3S Web of Conferences 314, 05003.
Damadi, Sekineh., Dehvari, Abdulhamid., Dahmardeh Ghaleno, Mohammadreza., & Ebrahimian, Mahbobeh. (2020). "Technical Report" Flood Hydrograph Simulation Using HEC-HMS Model in Sarbaz River Basin of Sistan and Baluchestan Province. J Watershed Manage Res. 11(22), 287-295. (In Persian)
Dodange, Esmaeil., Shahedi, Kaka., & Solaimani, Karim. (2015). The application of the copula theory to evaluate the performance of the IHACRES hydrological model (case study: Taleghan watershed). Journal of Earth and Space Physics 44(1): 88-71. (In Persian)
Fleming, M., & Vincent, N. )2004(. Continuous hydrologic modeling study with the hydrologic modeling system. Journal of Hydrologic Engineering, 9(3): 175-183.
Ghafari Gilandeh, A., Sobhani, B., & Ostadi Babakandi, E. (2017). Estimation of Curve Number and Runoff in ArcGIS (A Case Study of Meshkin Shahr City). Hydrogeomorphology, 3(9), 159-175. (In Persian)
Hamdan, A.N.A., Almuktar, S., & Scholz, M. (2021). Rainfall-Runoff Modeling Using the HEC-HMS Model for the Al-Adhaim River Catchment, Northern Iraq. Hydrology, 8(2), 58.
Hosseinzadeh, Mohammadmehdi., & Eimani, Sepideh. (2016). Modeling hydrological Ghouchak - Roodak catchment by using HMS - HEC model. Researches in Earth Sciences, 7(1), 31-43. (In Persian)
Joo, J., Kjeldsen, T., Kim, H., & Lee, H. (2014). A comparison of two event-based flood models (ReFH-rainfall runoff model and HEC-HMS) at two Korean catchments. KSCE Journal of Civil Engineering, 18(1): 330-343.
Karamouz, Mohammad., & Arghinejad, Shahab. (2017). Advanced Hydrology, 4th edition, AmirKabir University of Technology Publications, Tehran Polytechnic, Iran. 464 p. (In Persian)
Khalili, Najmeh., Khodashanas, Saeedreza., & Davari, Kamran. (1385). Forecasting precipitation using artificial neural networks. Iran Water Resources Management Conference, SID. (In Persian)
Kheiry, Hoshang., Maghami Moghim, Gholamreza., & Ahmadi, Hassan. (2017). Modeling Water Balance Components in the Small-Forested Watershed (Case study: Kasilian Representative Basin). 21 (4) :59-85. (In Persian)
Kuhpayan Afzal, Farshad., &Qolkhani, Hossein. (2009). A practical guide for rainfall-runoff simulation using the HEC-HMS model. Motafkaran Publications, 210 p. (In Persian)
Mahdavi, Mohammad. (2022). Applied Hydrology (Volume 1), Tehran: University of Tehran Publishing and Printing Institute, 12th edition, 340 p. (In Persian)
Mansouri, Bahareh., Ahmadzadeh, Hojjat., Massah Bavani, Alireza., Morid, Saeed., Delavar, Majid., & Lotfi, Saeed. (2014). Investigating the effects of climate change on the water resources of Zarinerood basin using the SWAT model. Water and soil journal (agricultural sciences and industries) 28(6):1203-1191. (In Persian)
Massah Bavani, Alireza., & Morid, Saeed. (2006). The effect of climate change on the flow of Zayandeh River in Isfahan. Agricultural sciences and techniques and natural resources 9(4):17-27. (In Persian)
Moharrampour, Elham., Nazarnejad, Habib., & Babaei, Siavash. (2017). estimation of curve number and height of runoff in Arc GIS environment with Arc CN-Runoff tool in Nazlochai watershed of Urmia, No. 119, 49-41. (In Persian)
Mojerloo, Fatemeh. (2018). Determination the Best Pattern of Operation and Allocation of Water Resources in the Watershed of Tajan River under Different Climate Change Scenarios using WEAP Model. Master's thesis, University of Agricultural Sciences and Natural Resources, Sari, Iran. 123 p. (In Persian)
Mojerloo, Fatemeh., Fazloula, Ramin., & Emadi, Alireza. (2019). The application of the model to evaluate the effects of climate change on the discharge of the Tajen watershed. Iranian Journal of Irrigation and Drainage 13(1): 141-129. (In Persian)
Moteshaffeh, Behzad., Akhund Ali, Ali Mohammad., Sharifi, Mohammad Reza., & Zarei, Haider. (2023). Evaluation of the effect of the formation of the flow pattern on the outlet hydrograph of the watershed in the HEC-HMS simulator (case study: Yellow River watershed). Irrigation Science and Engineering, 46(2), 1-14. (In Persian)
Mousavi Nadoushani, Seyyed. Saeed., & Danandeh Mehr, Ali. (2013). Hydrological Modeling System (HEC-HMS). Dibagaran Cultural-Art Institute, Tehran, 296 p. (In Persian)
Pourmohammadi, Samaneh., & Javadianzadeh, Mohammadmehdi. (2017). Comparing the effectiveness of artificial intelligence methods and the HEC-HMS conceptual model in estimating the increase in resources due to cloud fertilization, the 7th National Water Resources Management Conference, Yazd 123 p. (In Persian)
Riahi, Mohammadreza., Soleimani Karim., Mousavi Seyyed. Reza., & Bani Hashemi, Masoumeh. (2016). Investigating the effect of land use change on river flow using the HEC-HMS model (case study: Laksha Nekarud watershed). Iranian Water Research Journal, (11)1: 33-43. (In Persian)
Shieh, Ch.L., Guh, Y.R., & Wang, Sh.O. (2007). The application of range of variability approach to the assessment of a check dam on riverine habitat alteration. Environ Geol. 52:427-435.
Sohrabian, Elahe., Meftah Halghi, Mehdi., Ghorbani Golian, Saeed., & Zakerinia, Mehdi. (2015). Investigating the impact of climate change on the drainage of the basin with the intervention of the hydrological model (case study: Galikash basin in Golestan province). Water and soil protection research journal 22(2): 111-125. (In Persian)
Steele-Dunne, S., Lynch, P., McGrath, R., Semmler, T., Wang, S., Hanafin, J., & Nolan, P. (2008). The impacts of climate change on hydrology in Ireland, Journal of Hydrology, 356: 28–45.
Teimuri, Mohammadali., Pirnia, Abdollah., & Soleimani, Karim. (2018). CN sensitivity analysis on flood hydrograph by WMS model, 5th Iran National Watershed Science and Engineering Conference (sustainable management of natural disasters), number of pages: 13. (In Persian)
Try ,S., Tanaka, S., Tanaka, K., Sayama, T., Oeurng, C., UK, S., Takara, K., Hu, M., & Han, D. (2020), Comparison of gridded precipitation datasets for rainfall-runoff and inundation modeling in the Mekong River Basin, PLoS ONE, 15(1): 13p.
Zeraatkar, Zahra., & Hasanpour, Farzad. (2015). Birjand urban flood simulation using HEC-RAS and ARC-GIS model. Watershed Research (Research and Development), No. 112, 41-56. (In Persian)
Iranian Journal of Soil and Water Research
Volume 56, Issue 1
April 2025
Pages 187-205

Files

Share

How to cite

Statistics