Evaluating the consequences of climate change on the trend of extreme events and its impact on the phenology of almond trees, a case study: East Azarbaijan province

Document Type : Research Paper

Authors

Department of Physical Geography, Faculty of Social Sciences, University of Mohaghegh Ardabili, Ardabil, Iran.

Abstract

Extreme weather events are one of the most important challenges for agricultural producers, and these events are currently increasing. Projection the effects of extreme events on garden crops is one of the most important discussions in food security and agricultural economics. The purpose of this research is to investigate the consequences of climate change on the trend of extreme events and its effect on the phenology of almond trees in East Azerbaijan province. In order to investigate and project Precipitation and minimum and maximum temperature and determine the climate change extreme index that had the greatest impact on almond tree phenology from the Cimate Model Intercomparion Project – Phase 6 (CMIP 6) in the upcoming period (2021 to 2100) was used in Tabriz, Ahar, Jolfa, Maragheh and Midane stations. The results of the investigation of temperature and precipitation indicators for the future periods indicated that the average annual temperature will increase from 0.9 to 4.5 degrees Celsius until the year 2100 and the Precipitation output until the year 2100 indicates that the Precipitation in SSP5-8.5 scenario will decrease and in two scenarios SSP1-2.6 and SSP2-4.5 will increase a bit. These results showed that the length of the almond tree growth season increased from 176 days in the base observed period to 156 days in the SSP1-2.6 scenario, 150 days in the SSP2-4.5 scenario, and 146 days in the SSP5-8.5 scenario.

Keywords

EXTENDED ABSTRACT

Target:

Extreme weather events represent a significant challenge for agricultural producers and are currently increasing in frequency. Anticipating and assessing the impacts of these extreme events on horticultural crops is crucial for food security and agricultural economics. This study aims to evaluate the consequences of climate change on the trends of extreme weather events and their effects on the phenology of almond trees in East Azerbaijan Province.

Research Method:

 To analyze and predict precipitation and minimum and maximum temperatures, as well as to identify the extreme indices with the greatest impact on almond tree phenology, models from the CMIP6 climate projection project with three scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5) and a bias correction simulator were utilized for the future period (2021-2100) in East Azerbaijan Province. The Kling-Gupta Efficiency (KGE) method was used to determine the best model for simulating future precipitation and temperature data. Subsequently, the trends in extreme indices were examined. The effects of climatic extreme indices on almond tree phenology were analyzed using multivariate regression and correlation tests.

Findings:

 The performance of 12 climate models from the sixth assessment report of climate models was evaluated for the historical climate data period (1989-2014). Based on the results, the BCC-CSM2-MR and MIROC6 models provided the most accurate simulations for precipitation and temperature in East Azerbaijan Province. For forecasting precipitation and minimum and maximum temperatures for the future period (2021-2100) under three scenarios (optimistic, moderate, and pessimistic), bias correction was applied. The average changes in maximum and minimum temperatures and precipitation for the period 2021-2100 were presented in the form of maps and charts. The results indicated that, under all emission scenarios, annual temperatures are expected to rise, while annual precipitation will decrease in the western part of the country and increase in the eastern part. Climate scenarios showed that in most stations, warm extreme indices are increasing, while cold extreme indices are decreasing. Specifically, the number of summer days with maximum temperatures exceeding 25°C (SU25) is on the rise across all stations, whereas the number of cold nights (TN10P) is decreasing in most stations. The trends in extreme precipitation indices at the regional level revealed a decreasing trend in the annual precipitation index under scenarios SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5, while indices such as CCD, SDII, and P95p are increasing. This suggests a rise in intense and short-duration precipitation events alongside a reduction in the length of the precipitation season in the studied regions. According to regression model results and correlation coefficients, the future climate change scenarios (SSP) are expected to shorten the growing season calendar in the studied regions.

Conclusion:

The examination of extreme precipitation and temperature indices on almond tree phenology indicates that the warming trend in the studied regions will lead to earlier blooming and ripening of almond fruits compared to the observational period. The most significant reduction in the growing season will occur during the fruit ripening phase, which will result in decreased quantity and quality of almond production under future climate conditions.

Author Contributions:

All authors contributed equally to the conceptualization of the article and writing of the original and subsequent drafts.

Data Availability Statement:

The studied data are available in the Meteorological Organization of Iran.

Acknowledgements:

The authors would like to thank all participants of the present study.

Ethical considerations:

The authors avoided data fabrication, falsification, plagiarism, and misconduct.

Conflict of interest:

The authors declare no conflict of interest.

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Iranian Journal of Soil and Water Research
Volume 55, Issue 12
March 2025
Pages 2351-2371

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