توسعه مدل عامل‌بنیان جهت تخصیص بهینه‌ آب از مخزن سد مطالعه موردی: سد شهید رجایی

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 گروه مهندسی آب، دانشکده مهندسی زراعی، دانشگاه علوم کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی ساری، ساری، ایران

2 گروه مهندسی آب، دانشگاه علوم کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی ساری، ساری، ایران

3 عضو هیأت علمی، گروه مهندسی آب، دانشکده مهندسی زراعی، دانشگاه علوم کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی ساری، ساری، ایران.

چکیده

با وجود پیشرفت ابزارهای فنی برای تجزیه و تحلیل سیستم­های پیچیده، مهم­ترین مسئله در حل مشکلات منابع آب بر تعامل سیستم­های انسانی و طبیعی تمرکز دارد. مدل­سازی عامل­بنیان در سال­های اخیر به­عنوان ابزاری مؤثر برای توسعه مدل­های یکپارچه انسانی و زیست­محیطی مورد استفاده قرار گرفته است. یکی از اصلی­ترین چالش­های کاربرد مدل­های عامل­بنیان در مدیریت منابع آب، شناسایی و توصیف عامل­­های اصلی می­باشد. در این پژوهش، یک مدل عامل­بنیان برای تخصیص بهینه آب از مخزن سد به نیازهای پایین­دست توسعه داده شده است. مدل ارائه شده شامل شبیه­سازی مخزن با استفاده از سیاست بهره­برداری استاندارد، بهینه­سازی تخصیص آب با استفاده از الگوریتم ژنتیک و شبیه­سازی رفتاری عامل­ها با استفاده از مدل عامل­بنیان می­باشد. مدل شبیه­سازی رفتاری، تعامل ذی­نفعان را شبیه­سازی کرده و واکنش آن­ها به تصمیمات تخصیص آب را نشان می­دهد. برای توسعه مدل، عامل­های اصلی در حوزه آبریز تجن اعم از شرب، صنعت، کشاورزی، محیط­زیست و بخش سیاست­گذار، شناسایی شدند. مدل ارائه شده روشی جدید برای شبیه‌سازی تعاملات ذی­نفعان و ایجاد یک رابطه هیدرولوژیکی-زیست محیطی-انسانی به­منظور مدیریت تقاضا و تخصیص بهینه­ی آب به نیازها می­باشد. نتایج به­دست آمده نشان داد که مدل ارائه شده توانایی بالایی در افزایش مطلوبیت عامل­ها و سود کل از طریق تحلیل بازخورد عامل­ها دارد به­طوری­که مطلوبیت عامل­های کشاورزی از 19 درصد تا 47 درصد و سود کل به­میزان 4/21 درصد افزایش یافته است.

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

Agent Based Model Development for Optimal Water Allocation from Dam Reservoir Case Study: Shahid Rajaee Dam

نویسندگان [English]

  • mahsa noori 1
  • Alireza Emadi 2
  • Ramin Fazloula 3
1 Department of Water Engineering, Faculty of Agricultural Engineering , Sari Agricultural Sciences and Natural Resources University, Sari, Iran
2 Department of Water Engineering, Sari Agricultural Sciences and Natural Resources University,sari,iran
3 Faculty Member, Water Engineering Department, Agricultural Eng. College, Sari Agricultural Sciences and Natural Resources University, Sari, Iran.
چکیده [English]

Despite the development of technical tools for the analysis of complex systems, the most important issue in resolving water resource problems focuses on the interaction of human and natural systems. Agent based modeling (ABM) has been used in recent years as an effective tool for the development of integrated human and environmental models. One of the main challenges of ABM application in water resources management is to identify and characterize key agents. In this study, an ABM has been developed for optimal water allocation from dam reservoir to downstream needs. The proposed model includes reservoir simulation using Standard Operating Policy, optimization of water allocation using Genetic Algorithm, and behavioral simulation of agents using ABM. The behavioral simulation model simulated stakeholders interactions and their reactions to water allocation decisions. To develop this model, key agents including drinking, industry, agriculture, environment and policy sector were identified in the Tajan basin. The proposed model is a new method for simulation of stakeholder interactions and establishing a hydrological-environmental-human relationship to manage demand and to optimize water allocation to water needs. The obtained results showed that the proposed model has a high potential for increasing agent utility and total profit through agents feedback analysis, so that agricultural agent utility increased from 19% to 47% and the total profit increased up to 21.4%.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Agent Based Models
  • Behavioral simulation
  • Optimal water allocation
  • Tajan basin
  • water resources management
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