اثر تغییر اقلیم بر رواناب و رسوب حوضه با استفاده از مدل‌های SWAT و WEPP (مطالعه موردی: حوضه دهبار)

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دکتری علوم و مهندسی آب، گروه مهندسی آب، دانشکده کشاورزی، دانشگاه فردوسی مشهد

2 استاد، گروه مهندسی آب، دانشکده کشاورزی، دانشگاه فردوسی مشهد، مشهد، ایران

3 دانشیار، گروه مهندسی آب، دانشکده کشاورزی، دانشگاه فردوسی مشهد، مشهد، ایران

4 استادیار دانشکده منابع طبیعی و محیط زیست دانشگاه فردوسی مشهد

چکیده

تغییر اقلیم یکی از مهم­ترین عوامل تاثیرگذار بر چرخه هیدرولوژیک می­باشد. پژوهش حاضر تاثیر پدیده تغییر اقلیم را بر رواناب و رسوب حوضه آبخیز دهبار واقع در خراسان رضوی برای 30 سال آینده و با کمک مدل آماری LARS-WG و ابزار ارزیابی آب و خاک SWAT و مدل پیش­بینی فرسایش آبی WEPP مورد ارزیابی قرار می­دهد. ابتدا به منظور تولید داده­های هواشناسی دوره آتی در حوضه، مدل LARS-WG مورد واسنجی قرار گرفت و سپس از مدل HadGEM2 و سه سناریو RCP8.5، RCP4.5 و RCP2.6 برای ریز مقیاس­سازی داده­های هواشناسی برای دوره 2050-2020 استفاده شد. نتایج مدل LARS-WG حاکی از کاهش بارندگی و افزایش دما در افق 2050 می­باشد. نتایج مدل SWAT نیز تغییرات رواناب را برای سناریوهای RCP8.5، RCP4.5 و RCP2.6 به ترتیب 16/22-، 93/17- و 34/17- درصد و تغییرات رسوب را به ترتیب 4/4- ، 4/9+ و 2/3+ درصد نسبت به دوره پایه نشان می­دهد. در مدل WEPP با انتخاب روش دامنه و استفاده از نتایج ریز­مقیاس­شده مدل گردش عمومی جو تحت سناریوهای RCP8.5، RCP4.5 و RCP2.6، تغییرات رسوب به ترتیب 4/6- ، 6/12+ و 8/4+ نسبت به دوره پایه برآورد شد.

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

The Impact of Climate Change on Watershed Runoff and Sedimentation Using SWAT and WEPP Models (Case Study: Dehbar Basin)

نویسندگان [English]

  • Hamed Heidary 1
  • Mohammad Mousavi 2
  • kazem esmaili 3
  • Ali Golkarian 4
1 Ph.D. Student, Faculty of Agriculture, Ferdowsi University of Mashhad, Iran
2 Professor, Faculty of Agriculture, Ferdowsi University of Mashhad, Mashhad, Iran
3 Associate Professor, Faculty of Agriculture, Ferdowsi University of Mashhad, Mashhad, Iran
4 Assistant prof, Faculty of Natural Resources and Environment, Ferdowsi University of Mashhad
چکیده [English]

Climate change is one of the most important factors influencing the hydrological cycle.The present study investigate the impact of climate change on runoff and sedimentation of the Dehbar watershed for the next 30 years using statistical model, LARS-WG and conceptual hydrological model, SWAT and WEPP. First, LARS-WG model was calibrated to generate future meteorological data in the basin. Then, the HadGEM2 model with three scenarios; RCP8.5, RCP4.5 and RCP2.6 were used to downscale meteorological data for period of 2020 to 2050. The results indicate a decrease in rainfall and an increase in temperature on the horizon of 2050. Also, the results of SWAT model show the runoff variations for RCP8.5, RCP4.5 and RCP2.6 scenarios which are -22.16%, -17.93% and -17.34%, respectively, and for sedimentation variations which are -4.4%, +9.4% and +3.2%, respectively, relative to the base period. In the WEPP model by choosing the hillslop method and using downscaled results of RCP8.5, RCP4.5 and RCP2.6 scenarios, sediment variations were estimated -6.4%, +12.6%, and +4.8%, respectively, compared to the base period.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • climate change
  • LARS-WG
  • sedimentation
  • Runoff
  • HadGEM2
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