واسنجی و اعتبارسنجی مدل WEAP21 برای حوضه‌های آبریز زرینه‌رود و سیمینه‌رود

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دکتری سازه های آبی، بخش مهندسی آب، دانشگاه شهید باهنر کرمان

2 استاد بخش مهندسی آب، دانشگاه شهید باهنر کرمان

3 استادیار بخش مهندسی آب، دانشگاه شهید باهنر کرمان

4 استادیار گروه مهندسی آب، دانشگاه ارومیه

چکیده

امروزه برنامه­ریزی، طراحی و مدیریت سیستم­های منابع آب شامل پیش­بینی اثرات نیز می­باشد. پیش­بینی اثرات مستلزم مدل­سازی است. در این تحقیق واسنجی و اعتبارسنجی مدل هیدرولوژیکی WEAP21 بر روی حوضه­های آبریز زرینه­رود و سیمینه­رود مورد بررسی قرار گرفته است. رودخانه­های زرینه­رود و سیمینه­رود با پتانسیل آبدهی حدود 3 میلیارد مترمکعب در سال، سهمی حدود 50 درصدی در حوضه آبریز دریاچه ارومیه را دارا می­باشند. در این تحقیق از روش رطوبت خاک برای شبیه­سازی هیدرولوژیکی مدل WEAP21 استفاده شد. یک دوره آماری 11 ساله (از سال آبی 74-1373 تا 84-1383) برای واسنجی مدل در نظر گرفته شد. ارزیابی نتایج شبیه­سازی مدل با استفاده از شاخص­های آماری ضریب تبیین، ضریب نش- ساتکلیف و شاخص تطابق نشان داد که برای ایستگاه هیدرومتری ورودی سد بوکان مقادیر شاخص­ها به ترتیب برابر با 90/0، 83/0 و 95/0، برای ایستگاه هیدرومتری نظام آباد مقادیر شاخص­ها به ترتیب برابر با 75/0، 74/0 و 92/0، برای ایستگاه هیدرومتری داشبند مقادیر شاخص­ها به ترتیب برابر با 82/0، 81/0 و 95/0 و برای ایستگاه هیدرومتری پل میاندوآب مقادیر شاخص­ها به ترتیب برابر با 75/0، 75/0 و 92/0 می­باشد. برای اعتبارسنجی مدل، یک دوره 9 ساله (از سال آبی 85-1384 تا 93-1392) در نظر گرفته شد. نتایج برای این دوره نشان داد که برای ایستگاه هیدرومتری ورودی سد بوکان مقادیر شاخص­ها به ترتیب برابر با 88/0، 85/0 و 96/0، برای ایستگاه هیدرومتری نظام آباد مقادیر شاخص­ها به ترتیب برابر با 72/0، 70/0 و 91/0، برای ایستگاه هیدرومتری داشبند مقادیر شاخص­ها به ترتیب برابر با 86/0، 85/0 و 96/0 و برای ایستگاه هیدرومتری پل میاندوآب مقادیر شاخص­ها به ترتیب برابر با 80/0، 78/0و 93/0 می­باشد. به‌طور کلی ارزیابی نتایج شبیه­سازی، عملکرد خوب مدل را نشان داد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات


عنوان مقاله [English]

Calibration and Validation of model WEAP21 for Zarrineh Rud and Simineh Rud Basins

نویسندگان [English]

  • Jamal Ahmadaali 1
  • Gholam-Abbas Barani 2
  • Kourosh Qaderi 3
  • Behzad Hessari 4
1 PhD Student, Department of Water Engineering, Shahid Bahonar University of Kerman
2 Professor, Department of Water Engineering, Shahid Bahonar University of Kerman
3 Assistant Professor, Department of Water Engineering, Shahid Bahonar University of Kerman
4 Assistant Professor, Department of Water Engineering, Urmia University
چکیده [English]

Planning, designing and managing water resources systems today unavoidably include impact prediction. Impact prediction includes modelling. In the present study the hydrological model WEAP21 was calibrated and validated on the Zarrineh Rud and Simineh Rud Basins. Zarrineh Rud and Simineh Rud rivers with a discharge potential of 3 billion m3 per year have a 50% portion in Urmia Lake Basin. In the present study the soil moisture method was used for the hydrological simulation of model WEAP21. An 11-year statistical period (from 1994-95 to 2004-05) was planned for calibrating the model. The analysis of results of model simulation using the statistical indices showed that coefficient of determination, Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient and index of agreement for different stations were as follows, respectively: Inflow to Boukan dam hydrometry station: 0.9, 0.83, and 0.95; Nezam Abad hydrometry station: 0.75, 0.74, and 0.92; Dashband hydrometry station: 0.82, 0.81, and 0.95 and Miyandoab bridge hydrometry station: 0.75, 0.75, and 0.92. A nine-year period (from 2005-06 to 2013-14) was planned for validating the model. The analysis of results showed that coefficient of determination, Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient and index of agreement for different stations were as follows, respectively: Inflow to Boukan dam hydrometry station: 0.88, 0.85, and 0.96; Nezam Abad hydrometry station: 0.72, 0.7, and 0.91; Dashband hydrometry station: 0.86, 0.85, and 0.96; Miyandoab Bridge hydrometry station: 0.8, 0.78, and 0.93. Generally speaking, the results of simulation showed that the model had a good performance.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • simulation
  • Soil moisture method
  • Urmia Lake
  • Zarrineh Rud (Miandoab) irrigation network
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