ارزیابی پایش خشکسالی با رویکرد احتمالاتی و شاخص ترکیبی عملکرد مخزن (MSUI)

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی کارشناسی ارشد آبیاری و زهکشی دانشگاه اراک

2 استادیار گروه مهندسی آب دانشگاه اراک

چکیده

سیستم‏های پایش از مقدمات لازم در طرح‏های مقابله با خشکسالی‌اند. تعیین شاخص مناسب یکی از اجزای سیستم‏های پایش است. در این تحقیق دو روش رویکرد احتمالاتی و شاخص پایداری اصلاح‌شده ((MSUI برای پایش دورة خشکسالی 1377ـ 1380 در سیستم منابع آب زاینده‏رود ارزیابی و مقایسه شد. بدین منظور ابتدا، از بین شاخص‏های ترکیبی عملکرد مخزن، شاخص پایداری اصلاح‌شده برای منطقة مورد مطالعه انتخاب و خشکسالی بر اساس آن طبقه‏بندی شد. سپس، رویکرد احتمالاتی اجرا شد. نتایج نشان داد رویکرد احتمالاتی در اعلام هشدار زودهنگام خشکسالی سریع‏تر عمل می‌کند. بنابراین، جهت اعلام شروع وضعیت خشکسالی مناسب‌تر است. از طرف دیگر، شاخص پایداری اصلاح‌شده در طول دورة خشکسالی واکنش‌های مناسب‏تری نشان داد. بنابراین، استفادة هم‌زمان از دو شاخص معرفی‌شده می‏تواند در مدیریت و اعمال اقدامات لازم، هنگام شروع و در طول دورة خشکسالی، مؤثر باشد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله [English]

Drought Monitoring Assessment Using a Probabilistic Approach and a Combinational Reservoir Index (MSUI)

نویسندگان [English]

  • Saba Khajeh 1
  • Shahla Paimozd 2
  • Mahnoosh Moghaddasi 2
1 Former graduate student, Arak University
2 Assistant Professor, Arak University
چکیده [English]

Assignment of appropriate indices constitutes an important component of a monitoring system necessary for the planning of drought encounter plans. The probabilistic approach and the combinational reservoir index methods were assessed and compared, to monitor the drought period of 1998-2000 in Zayandeh Rud basin. To follow the purpose, the MSUI index was initially selected from among the combinational indices for the mentioned basin and then the drought classified accordingly. Within the next stage probabilistic approach was determined as based on the site conditions itself based upon, the classification done. The results revealed that the probabilistic approach performed faster in early warnings and so the index was more suitable in indicating the drought occurrence. On the other hand MSUI index revealed a more appropriate performance during the drought period. Finally it is recommended that a joint application of the two indices can be more useful for management and taking of the necessary measures during, and as well, within the initiation span of a drought.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Drought Monitoring
  • Probabilistic approach
  • Combinational reservoir index

مراجع

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