Correlation Analysis of large-scale Teleconnection Indices with Monthly Reference Evapotranspiration of Iran Synoptic Stations

Document Type : Research Paper

Authors

1 Department of Irrigation and Reclamation Engineering Department, Faculty of College of Agriculture & Natural Resources, University of Tehran, Karaj, Iran.

2 Assistant professor, Atmospheric Science and Meteorological Research Center (ASMERC), Tehran, Iran

Abstract

Reference evapotranspiration (ETo) is considered as an important component in the hydrological cycle and determination of water requirement. In this study, an attempt was made to investigate the effect of large-scale teleconnection indices (LSTIs) on estimation of monthly reference evapotranspiration (ETo) in Iran. For this purpose, daily and monthly ETo using Penman–Monteith FAO (PMF-56) equation was calculated in 123 synoptic stations of Iran for the period of 1990-2019 and its correlation with 37 LSTIs with lag time of 0 to 12 months was obtained using the Pearson correlation method and the Significant Correlation Frequencies (SCF) was also calculated. Finally, the correlation coefficient was performed in Iran using the Kriging method in the ArcGIS 10.4 software package. The results show that the highest positive correlation belongs to AMO, CO2, NTA, TNA, and TSA indices and the highest negative correlation belongs to MEI and SST3.4 indices in different lag times. The highest SCF with ETo belongs to AMO, CO2, NTA, TNA, and WHWP indices, which include 35, 58, 23, 23, and 21% of the studied stations, respectively. The widest spatial distribution of SCF belongs to the CO2 obtained in all lag times and all months studied until November and December. The results of this study showed that the LSTIs and CO2 could have a good correlation in lag times of 0 to 12 months and could be used for prediction of monthly ETo, if an appropriate machine learning model is used.

Keywords

References

Ahmadi, M. (2014). Analyzing on the relationship among Teleconnection Patterns (TP) and Iran’s Precipitation Characteristics (IPC). PhD Thesis, Geographical and Remote sensing Department, Faculty of Humanities, Tarbiat Modares University.
Ahmadi, M. Salimi, S., Hosseini, S.A., Poorantiyosh., H. Aand Bayat, A. (2019). Iran's precipitation analysis using synoptic modeling of major teleconnection forces (MTF), Dynamics of Atmospheres and Oceans, 85, 41-56. DOI:10.1016/j.dynatmoce.2018.12.001
Ahmadi, M., Fathniya, A. and Abkharabat. S. (2015). Trend Analysis of Iran's Precipitation and Its Relation to the Teleconnection Forces, Journal of Climate Research, 23, 19-32.
Allen, R.G., (2000). REF-ET: Reference Evapotranspiration Calculation Software for FAO and ASCE Standardized Equations. Version 2 for Windows [Computer Software]. Univ. of Idaho Research and Extension Center, Kimberly, ID. http://www.kimberly.uidaho.edu/ref-et.
Allen, R.G., Periera, L.S., Raes, D. and Smith, M. (1998). Crop evapotranspiration: guideline for computing crop water requirement. FAO Irrigation and Drainage Paper No. 56. FAO: Rome, Italy.
Amirmoradi, K., Sabziparvar, A.A., Deihimi, A., 2015. Analysis of the Relationship between Seasonal Streamflow Variations and some Teleconnection Indices by Wavelet Analysis Method (Case study: Northwest Rivers), Water and Soil Science Journal, 4(1):269-284.
Arora, A., Rao, S. A., Chattopadhyay, R., Goswami, T., George, G., and Sabeerali, C. T. (2016). Role of Indian Ocean SST variability on the recent global warming hiatus, Global Planet. Change, 143, 21-30. DOI:10.1016/j.gloplacha.2016.05.009
Biabanaki, M., Eslamian, S.S., Koupai, J.A., Cañón, J., Boni, G. and Gheysari, M. (2013). A principal components/singular spectrum analysis approach to ENSO and PDO influences on rainfall in western Iran. Hydrol. Res., 45, 250-262. DOI:10.2166/nh.2013.166
Brutsaert, W. and Parlange, M.B. (1998). Hydrologic cycle explains the evaporation paradox. Nature, 396(6706), 30. DOI:10.1038/23845
Cao, L. and Zhou, Z. (2019). Variations of the Reference Evapotranspiration and Aridity Index over Northeast China: Changing Properties and Possible Causes, Advances in Meteorology, Article ID 7692871, 13 pages. DOI:10.1155/2019/7692871
Chai, R., Sun, S., Chen, H. and Zhou, S. (2018). Changes in reference evapotranspiration over China during 1960-2012: attributions and relationships with atmospheric circulation. Hydrological Processes, 32(19), 3032-3048. DOI:10.1002/hyp.13252
Chen, Y., Xue, Y. and Hu, Y. (2018). How multiple factors control evapotranspiration in North America evergreen needleleaf forests, Science of the Total Environment, 622-623, 1217-1224. DOI:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2017.12.038
Dai, A. and Wigley, T. M. L. (2000). Global patterns of ENSO-induced precipitation. Geophys. Res. Lett., 27, 1283-1286. DOI:10.1029/1999GL011140
Ding, Z., Lu, R. and Wang, Y. (2019). Spatiotemporal variations in extreme precipitation and their potential driving factors in non-monsoon regions of China during 1961-2017. Environmental Research Letters, 14(2), 024005. DOI:10.1088/1748-9326/aaf2ec
Dinpashoh, Y., Jhajharia, D., Fakheri-Fard, A., Singh, V.P. and Kahya, E. (2011). Trends in reference crop evapotranspiration over Iran, Journal of Hydrology, 399, 422-433. DOI:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2011.01.021
Dirmeyer, P.A., GAO, X., Zhao, M., Guo, Z., Oki, T. and Hanasaki, N., )2006(. GSWP-2: Multimodel analysis and implications for our perception of the land surface. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 87, 1381-1397. DOI:10.1175/BAMS.87.10.1381
Dong, Y., Zhao, Y., Zhai, J., Zhao, J., Han, J., Wang, Q., He, G. and Chang, H. (2021). Changes in reference evapotranspiration over the nonmonsoon region of China during 1961-2017: Relationships with atmospheric circulation and attributions, International Journal of Climatology, 41, 734-751. DOI:10.1002/joc.6722
Fang, W., Huang, S., Huang, Q., Huang, G., Meng, E. and Luan, J. (2018). Reference evapotranspiration forecasting based on local meteorological and global climate information screened by partial mutual information, Journal of Hydrology, 561, 764-779. DOI:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2018.04.038
Gonsamo, A., Chen, J.M., and Lombardozzi, D. (2016). Global vegetation productivity response to climatic oscillations during the satellite era. Glob. Chan. Biol., 22, 3414-3426. DOI:10.1111/gcb.13258
Grainger, S., Frederiksen, C.S. and Zheng, X. (2016). Projections of Southern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation interannual variability. Climate Dynamics, 48(3-4), 1187-1211. DOI:10.1007/s00382-016-3135-2
Hegerl, G. C., Black, E., Allan, R. P., Ingram, W. J., Polson, D., Trenberth, K. E., Chadwick, R. S., Arkin, P. A., Sarojini, B. B., Becker, A., Dai, A., Durack, P. J., Easterling, D., Fowler, H. J., Kendon, E. J., Huffman, G. J., Liu, C., Marsh, R., New, M., Osborn, T. J., Skliris, N., Stott, P. A., Vidale, P.-L., Wijffels, S. E., Wilcox, L. J., Willett, K. M., and Zhang, X. (2015). Challenges in Quantifying Changes in the Global Water Cycle, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 96, 1097-1115. DOI:10.1175/BAMS-D-13-00212.1
Heino, M., Guillaume, J.H.A., Müller, C., Iizumi, T. and Kummu, M. (2020). A multi-model analysis of teleconnected crop yield variability in a range of cropping systems. Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 113-128. DOI:10.5194/esd-11-113-2020
Hejabi, S. (2021). Estimation of the Reference Evapotranspiration Using the Projections of CORDEX Project and Investigation of the Meteorological Variables Contribution in its Changes (Case Study: Lake Urmia Basin), Iranian Journal of Irrigation and Drainage, 6(14), 1920-1938.
Helali, J., Hosseinzadeh, T., Cheraghalizadeh, M. and Mohammadi Ghaleni, M. (2021). Feasibility study of using Climate Teleconnection Indices in prediction of spring precipitation in Iran Basins, Iranian Journal of Soil and Water Research, 52(3), 749-769. DOI:10.22059/IJSWR.2021.316387.668857
Helali, J., Pishdad, E., Alidadi, M., Loukzadeh, S., Asadi Oskoei, E. and Norooz Valashedi, R. (2020b). Investigating the relationship between climate Teleconnection Indices and Autumnal Rainfall in Iran Watersheds, Iranian Journal of Soil and Water Research, 51(8), 1921-1936. DOI:10.22059/IJSWR.2020.294238.668434
Helali, J., Salimi, S., Lotfi, M., Hosseini, S.A., Bayat, A., Ahmadi, M. and Naderizarneh, S. (2020a). Investigation of the effect of large-scale atmospheric signals at different time lags on the autumn precipitation of Iran’s watersheds, Arabian Journal of Geosciences, 13 (18), 1-24. DOI:10.1007/s12517-020-05840-7
Hobbins, M.T., Ramírez, J.A. and Brown, T.C. (2004) Trends in pan evaporation and actual evapotranspiration across the conterminous U.S.: paradoxical or complementary? Geophysical Research Letters, 31(13), L13503. DOI:10.1029/2004GL019846
Hosseinzadeh Talaee, P., Shifteh Some’e, B. and Sobhan Ardakani, S. (2014). Time trend and change point of reference evapotranspiration over Iran, Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 116, 639-647. DOI:10.1007/s00704-013-0978-x
Hurrell, J. W., Kushnir, Y., Ottersen, G., and Visbeck, M. (2003). An overview of the North Atlantic Oscillation, in Geophysical Monograph American Geophysical Union, American Geophysical Union, 1-35. DOI:10.1029/GM134
IPCC. (2013) Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge and New York, NY: Cambridge University Press.
Kohler, M.A. (1949). Double-mass analysis for testing the consistency of records and for making adjustments. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 30,188-189. DOI:10.1175/1520-0477-30.5.188
Le, T. and Bae, D.H. (2020). Response of global evaporation to major climate modes in historical and future Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 simulations, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1131-1143. DOI:10.5194/hess-24-1131-2020
Li, G., Xie, S.P., He, C. and Chen, Z. (2017). Western Pacific emergent constraint lowers projected increase in Indian summer monsoon rainfall. Nature Climate Change, 7(10), 708-712. DOI:10.1038/nclimate3387
Liu, X., Luo, Y., Zhang, D., Zhang, M. and Liu, C. (2011). Recent changes in pan-evaporation dynamics in China. Geophysical Research Letters, 38(13), L13404. DOI:10.1029/2011GL047929
Lopez-Urrea, R., Martın de Santa Olalla, F., Fabeiro, C., Moratalla, A. (2006). Testing evapotranspiration equations using lysimeter observations in a semiarid climate. Agricultural Water Management, 85, 15-26. DOI:10.1016/ j.agwat.2006.03.014
Lyon, B.V. and Camargo, S.J. (2009). The seasonally-varying influence of ENSO on rainfall and tropical cyclone activity in the Philippines. Climate Dynamics, 32, 125-141. DOI:10.1007/s00382-008-0380-z
Martens, B., Waegeman, W., Dorigo, W. A., Verhoest, N. E. C., and Miralles, D. G. (2018). Terrestrial evaporation response to modes of climate variability, npj Clim. Atmos. Sci., 1, 43. DOI:10.1038/s41612-018-0053-5
Miralles, D. G., van den Berg, M. J., Gash, J. H., Parinussa, R. M., de Jeu, R. A. M., Beck, H. E., Holmes, T. R. H., Jiménez, C., Verhoest, N. E. C., Dorigo, W. A., Teuling, A. J., and Johannes Dolman, A. (2013). El Niño-La Niña cycle and recent trends in continental evaporation, Nat. Clim. Chang., 4, 1-5. DOI:10.1038/nclimate2068
Nazemosadat, M.J. and Cordery, I. (2000). On the relationships between ENSO and autumn rainfall in Iran. International Journal of Climatology, 20, 47-61. DOI:10.1002/(SICI)1097-0088(200001)20:1<47::AID-JOC461>3.0.CO;2-P
Nicolai-Shaw, N., Gudmundsson, L., Hirschi, M., and Seneviratne, S. I. (2016). Long-term predictability of soil moisture dynamics at the global scale: Persistence versus large-scale drivers, Geophys. Res. Lett., 43:8554-8562. DOI:10.1002/2016GL069847
Nouri, M. and Bannayan, M. (2019). Spatiotemporal changes in aridity index and reference evapotranspiration over semi-arid and humid regions of Iran: trend, cause, and sensitivity analyses, Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 136, 1073-1084. DOI:10.1007/s00704-018-2543-0
Peterson, T.C., Golubev, V.S. and Groisman, P.Y. (1995). Evaporation losing its strength. Nature, 377(6551), 687-688. DOI:10.1038/377687b0
Rahman, M.A., Yunsheng, L., Sultana, N. and Ongoma, V. (2019). Analysis of reference evapotranspiration (ETO) trends under climate change in Bangladesh using observed and CMIP5 data sets, Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics, 131, 639-655. DOI:10.1007/s00703-018-0596-3
Richard, Y., Trzaska, S., Roucou, P. and Rouault, M. (2000). Modification of the southern Africa rainfall variability/ENSO relationship since the late 1960s. Climate Dynamics, 16, 883-895. DOI:10.1007/s003820000086
Roderick, M.L. and Farquhar, G.D. (2002). The cause of decreased pan evaporation over the past 50 years. Science, 298(5597), 1410-1411. DOI:10.1126/science.1075390-a
Sabziparvar A.A., Tabari, H., Aeini, A. and Ghafouri, M. (2010). Evaluation of class A pan coefficient models for estimation of reference crop evapotranspiration in cold semi-arid and warm arid climates. Water Resource Management, 24(5), 909-920. DOI:10.1007/s11269-009-9478-2
Sabziparvar, A.A., Mirmasoudi, S.H., Tabari, H., Nazemosadat, M.J. and Maryanaji, Z. (2011). ENSO teleconnection impacts on reference evapotranspiration variability in some warm climates of Iran, Int. J. Climatol., 31 (11), 1710-1723. DOI:10.1002/joc.2187
Salehi, S., Dehghani, M., Mortazavi, S.M. and Singh, V.P. (2019). Trend analysis and change point detection of seasonal and annual precipitation in Iran. Int. J. Climatol., 40(1), 308-323. DOI:10.1002/joc.6211
Shams, S., Nazemosadat, S.M.J., Haghighi, A. A. K. and Parsa, S. Z. (2012). Effect of carbon dioxide concentration and irrigation level on evapotranspiration and yield of red bean, Journal of Science and Technology of Greenhouse, 12 (8), 1-10.
Shenbin, C., Yunfeng, L. and Thomas, A. (2006). Climatic change on the Tibetan Plateau: potential evapotranspiration trends from 1961-2000. Clim Chang, 76, 291-319. DOI:10.1007/s10584-006-9080-z
Soroush, F., Fathian, F., Hasheminasab Khabisi, F.S. and Kahya, E. (2020). Trends in pan evaporation and climate variables in Iran, Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 142, 407-432. DOI:10.1007/s00704-020-03262-9
Stephens, C.M., McVicar, T.R., Johnson, F.M. & Marshall, L.A. (2018). Revisiting pan evaporation trends in Australia a decade on. Geophysical Research Letters, 45(20), 11164-11172. DOI:10.1029/2018GL079332
Sun, C., Li, J., and Ding, R. (2016). Strengthening relationship between ENSO and western Russian summer surface temperature, Geophys. Res. Lett., 43, 843-851. DOI:10.1002/2015GL067503
Tabari, H. (2010). Evaluation of reference Crop evapotranspiration equations in various climates. Water Resource Management, 24, 2311-2337. DOI:10.1007/s11269.009.95538
Tabari, H., Aeini, A., Hosseinzadeh Talaee, P. and Shifteh Some’e, B. (2012a). Spatial distribution and temporal variation of reference evapotranspiration in arid and semi-arid regions of Iran, Hydrological Prossecc, 26(4), 500-512. DOI:10.1002/hyp.8146
Tabari, H., Hosseinzadeh Talaee, P. and Willems, P. (2014a). Links between Arctic Oscillation (AO) and inter-annual variability of Iranian evapotranspiration, Quaternary International, 345, 148-157. DOI:10.1016/j.quaint.2014.02.011
Tabari, H., Hosseinzadeh Talaee, P., Shifteh Some'e, B. and Willems, P. (2014b). Possible influences of North Atlantic Oscillation on winter reference evapotranspiration in Iran, Global and Planetary Change, 117, 28-39. DOI:10.1016/j.gloplacha.2014.03.006
Tabari, H., Nikbakht, J. and Hosseinzadeh Talaee, P. (2012b). Identification of Trend in Reference Evapotranspiration Series with Serial Dependence in Iran, Water Resour Manage, 26, 2219-2232. DOI:10.1007/s11269-012-0011-7
Thirumalai, K., DInezio, P. N., Okumura, Y., and Deser, C. (2017). Extreme temperatures in Southeast Asia caused by El Ninõ and worsened by global warming, Nat. Commun., 8, 1-8. DOI:10.1038/ncomms15531
Wang, J., Lv, X., Wang, J. and Lin, H. (2014). Spatiotemporal Variations of Reference Crop Evapotranspiration in Northern Xinjiang, China, The Scientific World Journal, Article ID 931515, 10 pages, DOI:10.1155/2014/931515
Wang, P., Yamanaka, T. and Qiu, G.Y. (2012). Causes of decreased reference evapotranspiration and pan evaporation in the Jinghe River catchment, northern China. Environmentalist, 32, 1-10. DOI:10.1007/s10669-011-9359-0
Xu, L., Shi, Z., Wang, Y., Zhang, S., Chu, X., Yu, P., Xiong, W., Zuo, H. and Wang, Y. (2015). Spatiotemporal variation and driving forces of reference evapotranspiration in Jing River basin, northwest China. Hydrological Processes, 29(23), 4846-4862. DOI:10.1002/hyp.10541
Yan, H., Yu, Q., Zhu, Z.C., Myneni, R.B., Yan, H.M., Wang, S.Q. and Shugart, H.H. (2013). Diagnostic analysis of interannual variation of global land evapotranspiration over 1982-2011: Assessing the impact of ENSO, J. Geophys. Res. Atmos., 118, 8969-8983. DOI:10.1002/jgrd.50693
Yin, Y., Wu, S. and Dai, E. (2010). Determining factors in potential evapotranspiration changes over China in the period 1971-2008. Chinese Science Bulletin, 55(29), 3329-3337. DOI:10.1007/s11434-010-3289-y
Yu, L., Zhong, S., Bian, X. and Heilman, W.E. (2015). Temporal and spatial variability of wind resources in the United States as derived from the climate forecast system reanalysis. Journal of Climate, 28(3), 1166-1183. DOI:10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00322.1
Yuan, W., Liu, S., Liang, S., Tan, Z., Liu, H. and Young, C. (2012). Estimations of evapotranspiration and water balance with uncertainty over the Yukon River basin. Water Resour Manag., 26, 2147-2157. DOI:10.1007/s11269.012.0007.3
Zappa, G., Pithan, F. and Shepherd, T.G. (2018). Multimodel evidence for an atmospheric circulation response to Arctic sea ice loss in the CMIP5 future projections. Geophysical Research Letters, 45(2), 1011-1019.
Iranian Journal of Soil and Water Research
Volume 52, Issue 6 - Serial Number 66
August 2021
Pages 1629-1644

Files

Share

How to cite

Statistics