Simultaneous Use of Climatic Signals and Sea Surface Temperature for Flow Forecasting (Case study: Cheshmeh Kileh catchment area)

Document Type : Research Paper

Authors

1 . Assistant Professor, Department of Water Engineering, Faculty of Agriculture, University of Zanjan, Zanjan, Iran

2 MSc Student, Department of Water Engineering, Faculty of Agriculture, University of Zanjan, Zanjan, Iran

Abstract

 Regarding to the amount of water resources and per capita water consumption, Iran is one of those countries which faces with water shortage. Therefore, water resources forecasting and planning could have a considerable role on future water consumption decisions. Today, the researchers’ findings about strong correlation between large scale climatic changes and hydrological phenomena have doubled the necessity of considering hydro-climatological discussions in hydrology. Accordingly, the use of statistical methods and advanced models has greatly contributed in forecasting hydrological phenomena. In the present study, the estimation of  spring discharge in Cheshmeh kile's stream was investigated through common climatic signals related to the Pacific Ocean and the Atlantic includes  Niño’s, AMO, SOI, NAO and PDO and also through the Caspian Sea surface temperature in winter by using conceptual model of ANN. The stream flow forecasting error with ANN model and climatic signals entry-SOI-NINO4-NINO3.4 using RMSE was calculated to be 8.61 m3/sec. This error with signal entry NINO3.4 was decreased to 3.31 m3/sec. Also, the forecasting error with precipitation entry and the Caspian Sea surface temperature was reduced to 0.08.

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References

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Iranian Journal of Soil and Water Research
Volume 49, Issue 5
September and October 2018
Pages 1043-1053

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