امکان‌سنجی استفاده از شاخص‌های پیوند ازدور در پیش‌بینی بارش فصل بهار حوضه‌های آبریز ایران

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 گروه مهندسی آبیاری و آبادانی، دانشکده مهندسی و فناوری کشاورزی، پردیس کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی دانشگاه تهران، کرج، ایران

2 گروه جغرافیای طبیعی، دانشکده علوم زمین، دانشگاه شهید بهشتی، تهران، ایران

3 گروه مهندسی آبیاری و آبادانی، دانشکده فناوری و مهندسی کشاورزی، پردیس کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی، دانشگاه تهران، کرج، ایران

4 استادیار گروه علوم و مهندسی آب، دانشگاه اراک، اراک، ایران.

چکیده

مدیریت و برنامه‌ریزی در زمینه منابع آب در فصول مختلف به خصوص فصل بهار به منظور بهره‌برداری در بخش‌های کشاورزی، صنعتی و شرب در مناطق خشک و نیمه خشک جهان به خصوص ایران بسیار حیاتی است. شاخص‌های پیوندازدور به عنوان شاخص‌های بزرگ‌مقیاس می‌توانند در رفتار هیدرولوژیکی در سطح حوضه آبریز موثر باشند. در این مطالعه سعی شد ارتباط بین این شاخص‌ها و بارش‌های فصل بهار در حوضه‌های آبریز ایران مورد بررسی قرار گرفته و امکان استفاده از آن­ها به عنوان متغیرهای پیش­بینی کننده مورد ارزیابی قرار گیرد. به این منظور همبستگی 40 شاخص پیوندازدور با فرکانس­های مختلف در تاخیرهای زمانی 6 تا 1 ماهه با بارش فصل بهار مورد بررسی قرار گرفت. نتایج نشان داد درصد ایستگاه­هایی که همبستگی بارش فصل بهار آن­ها با شاخص­های پیوندازدور معنادار است بسته به حوضه آبریز متغیر است. به طور کلی، شاخص‌های مرتبط با ENSO و SST بیشترین فراوانی همبستگی‌های معنادار با بارش بهار در نیمه شمالی، شمال غربی، شمال شرقی و گاهی جنوب غربی را دارند. این شاخص­ها در حوضه دریای خزر در تأخیر 3 تا 6 ماهه، خلیج فارس-دریای عمان 1 تا 3 ماهه، دریاچه ارومیه 3 ماهه، فلات مرکزی 1 تا 4 ماهه، مرز شرقی 1 و 6 ماهه، و حوزه قره‌قوم تأخیر 1 و 3 ماهه بیشترین مقدار را دارند. به طور کلی، می‌توان گفت بارش فصل بهار در بسیاری از ایستگاه‌های واقع در حوضه‌های آبریز نیمه شمالی ایران با شاخص‌های پیوندازدور همبستگی معنادار دارند ولی در بخش جنوبی، فلات مرکزی و بخش شرقی کمترین همبستگی را دارند که این امر به دلیل بارش کم در مناطق جنوبی در این فصل است. بررسی نتایج نشان داد کارایی مدل MLP نسبت به مدل MLR در مدلسازی مقدار بارش فصل بهار عمده حوضه­های آبریز بالاتر است.

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

Feasibility study of using Climate Teleconnection Indices in prediction of spring precipitation in Iran Basins

نویسندگان [English]

  • Jalil Helali 1
  • Touran Hosseinzahef 2
  • Majid Cheraghalizadeh 3
  • Mehdi Mohammadi Ghalenei 4
1 Department of Irrigation and Reclamation Engineering Department, Faculty of College of Agriculture & Natural Resources, University of Tehran, Karaj, Iran.
2 Department of Natural Geography, Faculty of Earth Sciences, Shahid Beheshti University, Tehran, Iran
3 Department of Irrigation and Reclamation Engineering, College of Agriculture and Natural Resources, University of Tehran, Karaj, Iran
4 Department of Water Sciences & Engineering, Faculty of Agriculture and Engineering, Arak University, Arak, Iran
چکیده [English]

Management and planning in the field of water resources in different seasons, especially in spring, is very vital for exploitation in the agricultural, industrial and drinking sectors in arid and semi-arid regions of the world, especially Iran. Climate Teleconnection Indices (CTI) as large-scale indices can be important in hydrological behavior at the basin scale. In this study, the relationship between these indices and spring rainfall in the basins of Iran was investigated and the possibility of using them as predictor variables was identified. For this purpose, the correlation of 40 CTI in time delays of 6 to 1 month with spring rainfall was investigated. The results showed that the percentage of stations that have a significant correlation with spring precipitation, varies depending on the location of the basin, but in general, the indicators related to ENSO and SSTs have the most frequent significant correlations with spring rainfall in the northern half, northwest, northeast and sometimes southwest springs. These indicators in the Caspian Sea basin with a delay of 3 to 6 months, Persian Gulf-Oman Sea with a delay of 1 to 3 months, Lake Urmia with a delay of 3 months, Central Plateau with a delay of 1 to 4 months, Eastern border with a delay of 1 and 6 months, and Qarahqom basin with a delay of 1 and 3 months have the highest amount. In general, it can be said that the spring rainfall in many stations located in the watersheds of the northern half of Iran have a significant correlation with the CTI, but in the southern, the central plateau and the eastern part have the lowest correlation, which is due to the low rainfall in this season in the southern regions. The results showed that the efficiency of predicting spring precipitation by MLP model is better than MLR model.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Climate Teleconnection Indices
  • Basin
  • spring precipitation
  • Multi-Layer Perceptron
  • Multi Linear Regression
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