کاربرد روش پویایی سیستم در شبیه سازی و بهینه سازی الگوی کشت شبکه آبیاری و زهکشی سمت راست آبشار اصفهان

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 استادیار گروه علوم و مهندسی آب دانشکدة کشاورزی دانشگاه بوعلی سینای همدان

2 دانشجوی کارشناسی ارشد مهندسی منابع آب دانشکدة کشاورزی گروه علوم و مهندسی آب دانشگاه بوعلی سینای همدان

چکیده

در این تحقیق استفادة تلفیقی از منابع آب‌ شبکة آبیاری و زهکشی سمت راست آبشار اصفهان، که یکی از شبکه‌های بحرانی حوضة زاینده‌رود است، با روش پویایی سیستم شبیه‌سازی شد. سپس، به منظور تعیین الگوی کشت بهینه، از تابع نسبت درآمد به هزینه استفاده شد. این هدف برای دو حالت توجه و عدم توجه به قید حفظ مجموع مساحت محصولات کشت‌شده در سال مبنا (سال زراعی 1385ـ 1386) با روش‌های مختلف مدیریت آب آبیاری و با اعمال محدودیت‌ درصدهای مختلف تغییر در سطح زیر کشت هر یک از محصولات شبکه در این سال تعریف شد. به منظور اعتباریابی نتایج مدل، عملکرد محاسبه‌ای و مشاهده‌ای محصولات موجود در شبکه مقایسه شدند و مقدار شاخص‏های جذر میانگین مربعات خطا (RMSE)، خطای استاندارد (SE)، و ضریب همبستگی (R2) برای عملکرد این محصولات، به ترتیب، 98/209 کیلوگرم بر هکتار و 007/0 و 99/0 محاسبه شد که دقت بالای مدل را نشان می‌دهد. همچنین نتایج نشان داد در صورت حفظ و عدم حفظ محدودیت مجموع مساحت زیر کشت در سال مبنا، بیشترین مقدار درآمد به هزینه، به ترتیب، برابر 025/3 و 144/3 و مربوط به نحوة برداشت از آب زیرزمینی بر اساس نیاز آبی با اجازة 50 درصد تغییر در سطح زیر کشت هر یک از محصولات است. سطح زیر کشت موجود از سطح زیر کشت مطلوب فاصلة زیادی دارد و ترکیب محصولات عمدة شبکه نامناسب است.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات

عنوان مقاله [English]

Applying System Dynamics Approach for Simulation and Optimization of the Cropping Pattern in Esfahan Right Side Abshar Irrigation and Drainage Network

نویسندگان [English]

  • Hamed Nozari 1
  • Vajihe Mohseni 2
1 Assistant Professor, Water Science and Engineering Department Faculty of Agriculture, Bu Ali Sina University, Hamedan
2 Graduate Student, Water Engineering Department, Faculty of Agriculture, Bu Ali Sina University, Hamedan
چکیده [English]

Integrated operation of water resources in Esfahan Right Side Abshar Irrigation and Drainage Network was studied, applying system dynamics methodology. The network is a critical one of Zayande Rood Basin the ratio of income to expense of which was investigated, considering the two cases of no change in cropping pattern vs change in cropping pattern during 1385-86 base years to obtain the optimal cropping pattern in the region. For an optimization of the cultivation pattern, maximization of the ratio of income to cost was defined as an objective function. The objective function was defined for two different cases of keeping the sum of cultivated areas using different methods of irrigation water management and requiring percent limits of change in cultivated area and in proportion to the base year, applied to each crop within the model. Following statistical analysis and calculation of the Root- Mean-Square Error, standard error, and correlation coefficient, the adjustment between the performances of the assessed vs simulated network products was determined. The values of these product indexes, according to the conditions prevailing on the network, were estimated as 209.98 kg/ha, 0.007, and 0.99, respectively. The results indicated a fair reasonable accuracy. Furthermore, the ratio of income to expense in the network amounted to 3.025 and 3.144 for the two cases of: no change in the cropping pattern vs change in the cropping pattern within the base year. The optimal cropping patterns were obtained through an application of 50% limit of the cultivated area for each crop within the base year. Results finally indicated that the existing cultivated area is very different from the desired one, and the combination of the dominant crops adopted is far from beneficial.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Cropping pattern
  • Income to cost
  • Integrated Use
  • Optimization
  • Surface and Ground water resources

مراجع

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