Investigation of Climate Change Projection on Temperature and Precipitation Parameters Using CMIP6 Models (Case Study: Birjand Station)

Document Type : Research Paper

Authors

1 PhD Student in Water Science and Engineering - Water Resources (Department of Water Science and Engineering, Faculty of Agriculture, Birjand University, Birjand, Iran)

2 Professor (Department of Water Science and Engineering, Faculty of Agriculture, Birjand University, Birjand, Iran)

3 Associate Professor (Department of Water Science and Engineering, Faculty of Agriculture, Birjand University, Birjand, Iran)

4 Associate Professor (Department of Water Science and Engineering, Faculty of Water Engineering, Gorgan University of Agricultural Sciences and Natural Resources, Gorgan, Iran)

Abstract

Today, changing temperature and precipitation parameters are the major challenges of water resources. In this study, meteorological data of Birjand station have been used. Data on minimum daily temperature and maximum daily temperature and daily precipitation values of Birjand station during the years 1990 to 2014 were prepared as baseline data from Birjand regional water and then arranged. three models of IPSL-CM6A-LR, MIROC-ES2L, and MRI-ESM2-0 from the set of sixth report models (CMIP6) were used to evaluate the Projection of the effect of climate change on the maximum and minimum temperature and precipitation parameters. Using correlation coefficient (R), root mean square error (RMSE),and Kling-Gupta (KGE) evaluation tests, the MIROC-ES2L model was selected as the most suitable model, and using the latest diffusion scenarios that have been introduced as Socio-Economic Trajectory (SSP), the Projection of the effect of climate change on temperature and precipitation parameters of Birjand station was studied. To reduce the scale of the data, the CMhyd model was used and three scenarios, SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5 (2022-2050), were used for the next period. Then, using Mann-Kendall test and Sen’s Slope, the trend of observational data parameters was determined. In this testm each of the parameters of maximum temperature, minimum temperature and precipitation in the observation period and the future, there is a significant trend in some months and some months do not have a significant trend. The results of this study showed that the maximum and minimum temperature changes in the next period (2022-2050) compared to the observational data have an increasing trend and the precipitation parameter has a sinusoidal trend and is increasing in some months and decreasing in some months, but In general, It can be said that the average total monthly precipitation is increasing in the future under all three scenarios for the MIROC-ES2L model.

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