University of Tehran Press Iranian Journal of Soil and Water Research 2008-479X 55 2 2024 04 20 Study of future climate change on the temperature and precipitation trends in Qarasu basin based on the CMIP6 models Study of future climate change on the temperature and precipitation trends in Qarasu basin based on the CMIP6 models 245 268 97029 10.22059/ijswr.2024.369146.669613 FA Leyli GhorbaniMinaei Department of Water Science and Engineering, Faculty of water Engineering, Gorgan University of Agricultural Sciences and Natural Resources, Gorgan, Iran, 0000-0001-5735-2611 Abolfazl Mosaedi Department of Water Science and Engineering, Faculty of Agriculture, Ferdowsi University of Mashad, Mashad, Iran 0000-0002-9698-5005 Mahdi Zakerinia Department of Water Science and Engineering, Faculty of water Engineering, Gorgan University of Agricultural Sciences and Natural Resources, Gorgan, Iran 0000-0003-1619-8819 Elham Kalbali Department of Agriculture Economy, Faculty of Agriculture, University of Zabol, Zabol, Iran 0009-0008-1238-452X Mohammad Ghabaei Soogh IRAN Water Resources Management Company, Tehran, Iran 0000-0002-6398-7725 Journal Article 2023 12 05 Determining the future climate situation by using climate models seems necessary to consider in the field of adaptation or reducing the adverse effects of climate change. In this research, the temporal trend of rainfall, minimum and maximum temperature in the four stations in the Qarasu basin and in addition to, investigated using Thiessen's interpolation method. Among the five models of the CMIP6, three models were selected as the best models and used for MME. Biass Correction was done with CMHyd software for scenarios SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 in periods 2026-2050, 2051-2075 and 2076-2100. The trend of variables in the base period (1990-2014) and future were investigated with Mann-Kendall test and sens slope. The results of analysis significant trends annual average maximum and minimum temperature of all stations and in catchment area according to SSP2.4-5 scenario in two near and middle future periods and for SSP5-8.5 scenario in all three future periods have a significant trend at the 99% level. In analysis significant trend seasonal rainfall according to SSP2.4-5 scenario in the summer season distant future all stations and in near future of the station area of Gorgan regional water company at the 95% level and for the SSP5-8.5 scenario only in the winter season in the distant future Ghafarhaji station has a significant trend at the 99% level. The future monthly rainfall in the catchment area according to scenario of SSP2.4-5 in August at the 99% probability level and SSP5-8.5 in March at the 95% probability level have a significant trend. Determining the future climate situation by using climate models seems necessary to consider in the field of adaptation or reducing the adverse effects of climate change. In this research, the temporal trend of rainfall, minimum and maximum temperature in the four stations in the Qarasu basin and in addition to, investigated using Thiessen's interpolation method. Among the five models of the CMIP6, three models were selected as the best models and used for MME. Biass Correction was done with CMHyd software for scenarios SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 in periods 2026-2050, 2051-2075 and 2076-2100. The trend of variables in the base period (1990-2014) and future were investigated with Mann-Kendall test and sens slope. The results of analysis significant trends annual average maximum and minimum temperature of all stations and in catchment area according to SSP2.4-5 scenario in two near and middle future periods and for SSP5-8.5 scenario in all three future periods have a significant trend at the 99% level. In analysis significant trend seasonal rainfall according to SSP2.4-5 scenario in the summer season distant future all stations and in near future of the station area of Gorgan regional water company at the 95% level and for the SSP5-8.5 scenario only in the winter season in the distant future Ghafarhaji station has a significant trend at the 99% level. The future monthly rainfall in the catchment area according to scenario of SSP2.4-5 in August at the 99% probability level and SSP5-8.5 in March at the 95% probability level have a significant trend. https://ijswr.ut.ac.ir/article_97029_2252c7cd65dbe01a5f38ad6136c1c19f.pdf