University of Tehran Press Iranian Journal of Soil and Water Research 2008-479X 57 5 2026 07 23 Risk Assessment of Climatic Constraints During Different Phenological Stages of Canola in Golestan Province Under Current and Future Climate Change Risk Assessment of Climatic Constraints During Different Phenological Stages of Canola in Golestan Province Under Current and Future Climate Change 1229 1247 107965 10.22059/ijswr.2026.414532.670142 FA Seyyedeh Fatemeh Arab Department of Irrigation & Reclamation Engineering, Faculty of Agricultural Engineering and Technology, University of Tehran, Karaj, Iran 0009-0004-6382-8232 Javad Bazrafshan Department of Irrigation and Reclamation Engineering, College of Agricultural and Natural Resources, University of Tehran, Karaj, Iran. 0000-0002-6721-8990 Journal Article 2026 05 16 This research investigates the projected impacts of future climate change on the vulnerability to climate-related constraints during the canola cultivation cycle within Golestan Province, Iran. Daily meteorological observations, encompassing precipitation, minimum temperature, and maximum temperature, were procured from ten synoptic weather stations operating in the region. The thermal thresholds for the four principal phenological phases of canola—specifically germination, vegetative growth, reproductive development, and seed maturation—were rigorously established based on prior investigations. Following meticulous data quality assessment and the statistical imputation of any identified gaps, outputs from two representative global climate models, simulated under the intermediate Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP2 4.5) scenario, were downscaled for the near term future (2023–2053) utilizing the LARS WG statistical downscaling model. Subsequently, the phenological progression of canola through its four developmental stages was delineated for both the historical baseline period (1992–2022) and the projected future climate, employing a growing degree day (GDD) model. A suite of eight key agroclimatic indices was then formulated, and their temporal variations were quantified across both the baseline and future scenarios for each phenological phase. Our findings reveal a discernible trend towards increased annual precipitation in nine months and statistically significant warming across nearly all months for both minimum and maximum temperatures when compared to the baseline. Under the projected climate change scenario, a notable shortening of the canola emergence and vegetative phases is anticipated, while the reproductive and maturation periods are expected to lengthen. These temporal shifts are intrinsically linked to the projected directional changes in temperature (warming) and precipitation (drying trends) during these respective developmental periods. Furthermore, the analysis highlights an augmented risk of frost damage during the critical reproductive stage, a diminished likelihood of satisfying the necessary vernalization (chilling) requirements in the vegetative phase, alongside an elevated probability of both extreme drought conditions and intense precipitation events throughout the entire canola phenological cycle. These findings underscore the critical need for adaptive agricultural strategies to mitigate the adverse impacts of projected climate change and ensure food security in the study area. This research investigates the projected impacts of future climate change on the vulnerability to climate-related constraints during the canola cultivation cycle within Golestan Province, Iran. Daily meteorological observations, encompassing precipitation, minimum temperature, and maximum temperature, were procured from ten synoptic weather stations operating in the region. The thermal thresholds for the four principal phenological phases of canola—specifically germination, vegetative growth, reproductive development, and seed maturation—were rigorously established based on prior investigations. Following meticulous data quality assessment and the statistical imputation of any identified gaps, outputs from two representative global climate models, simulated under the intermediate Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP2 4.5) scenario, were downscaled for the near term future (2023–2053) utilizing the LARS WG statistical downscaling model. Subsequently, the phenological progression of canola through its four developmental stages was delineated for both the historical baseline period (1992–2022) and the projected future climate, employing a growing degree day (GDD) model. A suite of eight key agroclimatic indices was then formulated, and their temporal variations were quantified across both the baseline and future scenarios for each phenological phase. Our findings reveal a discernible trend towards increased annual precipitation in nine months and statistically significant warming across nearly all months for both minimum and maximum temperatures when compared to the baseline. Under the projected climate change scenario, a notable shortening of the canola emergence and vegetative phases is anticipated, while the reproductive and maturation periods are expected to lengthen. These temporal shifts are intrinsically linked to the projected directional changes in temperature (warming) and precipitation (drying trends) during these respective developmental periods. Furthermore, the analysis highlights an augmented risk of frost damage during the critical reproductive stage, a diminished likelihood of satisfying the necessary vernalization (chilling) requirements in the vegetative phase, alongside an elevated probability of both extreme drought conditions and intense precipitation events throughout the entire canola phenological cycle. These findings underscore the critical need for adaptive agricultural strategies to mitigate the adverse impacts of projected climate change and ensure food security in the study area. https://ijswr.ut.ac.ir/article_107965_4b83a5542b894323c8036d0f8a04b19f.pdf