University of Tehran Press Iranian Journal of Soil and Water Research 2008-479X 56 12 2026 02 20 Projected Changes in Wind and Evaporation Patterns of the Caspian Sea under Different Climate Change Scenarios Projected Changes in Wind and Evaporation Patterns of the Caspian Sea under Different Climate Change Scenarios 3455 3474 106016 10.22059/ijswr.2025.403700.670021 FA Neda Rezavand Monfared Department of Water Engineering and Management, Faculty of Agriculture, Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran, Iran Mehdi Mazaheri Department of Water Engineering and Management, Faculty of Agriculture, Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran, Iran Seyed Mostafa Siadatmosavi School of Civil Engineering, Iran University of Science and Technology, Tehran, Iran Journal Article 2025 10 06 Climate change has profound impacts on hydrological processes, with evaporation and wind patterns playing key and determining roles. In this study, using the outputs of 18 climate models from the CMIP6 project under four emission scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5), the future changes in evaporation and wind over the Caspian Sea during the period 2021–2100 were investigated. In the first step, the models’ performance was evaluated against observational data for the baseline period (1980–2020), and error analysis was conducted. Subsequently, two models with the best performance, MPI-ESM1-2-HR and MIROC6, were selected for the final analysis. The results indicate that the annual average evaporation will increase in all scenarios compared to the baseline period, with an increase of approximately 11% in SSP1-2.6, 23% in SSP2-4.5, 26% in SSP3-7.0, and 31% in SSP5-8.5. This increase is more pronounced during warm seasons, especially in summer and early autumn, with monthly growth reaching up to 60% relative to the baseline. Moreover, wind patterns exhibit remarkable changes; the average wind speed in the future is projected to vary between 2 and 6 m/s, while in winter, under the influence of the Siberian high-pressure systems, values exceeding 6 m/s are recorded. These changes, by intensifying evaporation through the replacement of saturated air with dry air, will have significant consequences for hydrodynamics, circulation patterns, water balance, and vulnerable ecosystems such as the Gorgan Bay and Kara-Bukaz-Gol. The findings suggest that the combined effects of increased evaporation and altered wind regimes may seriously threaten the water level and ecological stability of the Caspian Sea. Therefore, considering these developments in regional water resource management and policy-making is essential. Climate change has profound impacts on hydrological processes, with evaporation and wind patterns playing key and determining roles. In this study, using the outputs of 18 climate models from the CMIP6 project under four emission scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5), the future changes in evaporation and wind over the Caspian Sea during the period 2021–2100 were investigated. In the first step, the models’ performance was evaluated against observational data for the baseline period (1980–2020), and error analysis was conducted. Subsequently, two models with the best performance, MPI-ESM1-2-HR and MIROC6, were selected for the final analysis. The results indicate that the annual average evaporation will increase in all scenarios compared to the baseline period, with an increase of approximately 11% in SSP1-2.6, 23% in SSP2-4.5, 26% in SSP3-7.0, and 31% in SSP5-8.5. This increase is more pronounced during warm seasons, especially in summer and early autumn, with monthly growth reaching up to 60% relative to the baseline. Moreover, wind patterns exhibit remarkable changes; the average wind speed in the future is projected to vary between 2 and 6 m/s, while in winter, under the influence of the Siberian high-pressure systems, values exceeding 6 m/s are recorded. These changes, by intensifying evaporation through the replacement of saturated air with dry air, will have significant consequences for hydrodynamics, circulation patterns, water balance, and vulnerable ecosystems such as the Gorgan Bay and Kara-Bukaz-Gol. The findings suggest that the combined effects of increased evaporation and altered wind regimes may seriously threaten the water level and ecological stability of the Caspian Sea. Therefore, considering these developments in regional water resource management and policy-making is essential. https://ijswr.ut.ac.ir/article_106016_dfe87dee7a2724fb27617dd276bf43f0.pdf